MSNBC, on Climate, 9 October 2026

6.0out of 10Serious

Isaias strengthens into dangerous Category 3 hurricane on track toward Gulf Coast

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BAYOU LA BATRE, Ala. (AP) — Isaias has strengthened into a powerful, Category 3 hurricane as it barrels toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Isaias’ maximum winds increased to 120 mph on Friday, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center reported, surpassing the 111 mph threshold for a Category 3. A storm of that strength or greater is considered a major hurricane. The first hurricane of the Atlantic season in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi when it makes landfall late Friday.

Heavy rain and flooding are possible into the weekend as far north as Tennessee and North Carolina. Category 3 storms, considered major hurricanes, are capable of causing devastating damage, the center said. Isaias was expected to weaken quickly as it hits shore and be downgraded to a tropical storm by Saturday afternoon as it moves north and inland along the Alabama-Mississippi line, the center said. “Preparations should be rushed to completion as the weather will go downhill quickly today,” the hurricane center said in an early morning forecast.

“While the storm is not expected to make landfall at peak intensity, it is likely that Isaias will still be a significant hurricane when it reaches the coast.” Isaias, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, was centered about 200 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving to the north at about 15 mph, the center said. It was expected to make landfall between Mobile Bay on the Alabama coast and Choctawhatchee Bay in the Florida Panhandle Friday evening.

Besides wind and storm surges, the hurricane will likely bring flash flooding and spawn tornadoes, the hurricane center said. A hurricane warning was in place from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm warnings were issued from southeastern Louisiana to Aucilla River along Florida’s Big Bend. Preparations have been going on for days. On Thursday, residents boarded up windows and stacked sandbags while thousands of National Guard soldiers were deployed.

Isaias is expected to bring a storm surge as high as 5 to 7 feet, with the deepest water hitting immediate coastal areas, along with large and dangerous waves, the hurricane center said. Coastal communities moved quickly to prepare Thursday, as Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey ordered non-residents to immediately evacuate Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Dauphin Island. Videos on social media showed traffic at a standstill on a highway leading out of Gulf Shores, where double-red beach flags signaled water access was closed.

Several counties announced mandatory evacuations for some coastal areas. The governors of Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency for dozens of counties, with Florida’s Ron DeSantis saying about 5,000 National Guard troops were expected to mobilize by Friday. On Dauphin Island, a 15-mile barrier island off the Alabama coast, officials encouraged voluntary evacuations, particularly on its popular western section, which is vulnerable to storm surge.

Mayor Jeff Collier said he did not anticipate substantial damage, “but at the same time, these things are very fickle and a little jog here or there, or some last-minute increase in strength — we just have to be prepared for the worst.” Meanwhile in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Simon, which formed as a tropical storm on Wednesday off of Mexico and became a hurricane late Thursday, was forecast to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane.

Hurricane Simon was headed toward part of Mexico’s Pacific coast Friday and forecast to intensify rapidly and become a Category 4 storm before landfall.

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What we found (1)

The AP report gives readers a clear, well-sourced account of Hurricane Isaias strengthening to Category 3, with forecasts, warnings and evacuations attributed to the National Hurricane Center and officials. It never says that warming is making intense hurricanes like this one more likely, so readers are left to see the storm as weather alone.

  1. Leaves out the climate link

    Serious

    “was forecast to intensify rapidly and cause dangerous conditions”

    Why this matters
    The words "forecast to intensify rapidly" report that a major hurricane is strengthening fast before landfall. Neither this sentence nor any other in the article says that a warming climate is making such storms more intense.
    The impression it gives
    A reader comes away thinking Isaias is a routine, purely natural event, with nothing about the planet's warming bearing on how strong or dangerous it has become.
    The context
    The documented record shows that human-caused warming has made intense tropical cyclones more frequent or more severe. The article never uses the word climate or warming anywhere, so the reader gets no line connecting this storm to that trend.

    How we know

    • Checked against the whole articleIt never uses the words “climate” and “warming”.
    • On the recordThat warming has made hot extremes, heavy rainfall, agricultural and ecological drought, fire weather and intense tropical cyclones more frequent or more severe.ipcc.ch (opens in a new tab)

    Show it in the article

    Written straight

    Isaias was forecast to intensify rapidly before landfall. Climate change is making intense hurricanes like this one more likely.

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