As Iran and U.S. Settle Into an Uneasy Standoff, Who Will Blink First?

They are not seriously negotiating, nor are they shooting at each other. Instead, Iran and the United States have settled into an uneasy, in-between state that risks either a return to fighting or a hardening stalemate. At the core of this unresolved status are calculations, perhaps miscalculations, by each side. Iranian officials believe they have more to gain from withstanding U.S. economic pressure and maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz than they do from making major concessions in a negotiated deal, analysts said. And the United States appears to be betting that putting Iran in a tighter economic stranglehold will succeed where military strikes have not. On Wednesday, President Trump vowed to impose “tremendous economic consequences” on countries that do business with Iran. So far, neither the U.S. nor Iran has gotten what they want. When the countries agreed to a cease-fire two months ago, it was supposed to put them on a path to a broader deal within 60 days, covering Iran’s nuclear program and the lifting of U.S. sanctions. That deadline passed this week and, on Tuesday, Mr. Trump said on social media that there were “no talks or conversations” going on or scheduled. Instead, the two countries are “in a state of constant limbo,” said Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po in Paris. “Not that much has fundamentally changed over the past several months,” she added, “beyond a further entrenchment of the Iranian position and repeated, so far unsuccessful, U.S. efforts to find some kind of way out.” Image Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Oman, this week. Credit... Reuters This month, Tehran issued a list of demands on Washington for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which sits along Iran’s southern coast and is a major transit point for much of the world’s oil. We are having trouble retrieving the article content. Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? Log in . Want all of The Times? Subscribe .