Why Super El Niño could be GOOD news this winter: Study reveals strong episodes are linked to 112,681 fewer cold-related deaths every year

The Daily Mail headline sells a strong El Niño as GOOD news this winter and gives only the cold-deaths figure, adding 'every year'. Its own body shows heat deaths almost cancel that out, quotes the lead author saying El Niño is not beneficial to health, and says the study is not a forecast. The body later reports the past heat-death figure as a certain future toll.

1. Headline goes beyond the article

   Serious

   “Why Super El Niño could be GOOD news this winter”

   Why this matters

   The words 'GOOD news this winter', with GOOD in capitals, give the reader a clear verdict that the coming El Niño will help this winter.

   The impression it gives

   A reader comes away thinking the study found El Niño is good for health, and that this winter will bring fewer deaths, including in Britain.

   The context

   The lead author says the offsetting changes do not mean El Niño is beneficial to health. The researchers say their data should not be taken as a forecast. The article itself says the UK typically gets more severe winters during El Niño.

   How we know

   • Elsewhere in the article“does not mean that El Niño is beneficial to health”
   • Elsewhere in the article“shouldn't be taken as a forecast for the coming Super El Niño”
   • Elsewhere in the article“some regions, such as the UK, typically experience more severe winter temperatures”

   Show it in the article

   Written straight

   Strong El Niño years linked to fewer cold deaths but almost as many extra heat deaths, study finds, with poorer tropical countries hit hardest.

2. Uses figures that mislead

   Serious

   “linked to 112,681 fewer cold-related deaths every year”

   Why this matters

   The headline gives only the 112,681 cold-death reduction and adds 'every year', leaving out the matching rise in heat deaths.

   The impression it gives

   A reader thinks the study found more than 100,000 lives saved each year, a large net benefit.

   The context

   The body reports 107,035 extra heat deaths, leaving a net change of about 5,645, or 0.17 per cent. The body links the figure to strong episodes, not to every year.

   How we know

   • Elsewhere in the article“107,035 additional heat-related deaths”
   • Elsewhere in the article“strong episodes are linked to 112,681 fewer cold-related deaths around the world”
   • Elsewhere in the article“resulting in a 0.17 per cent difference”

   Show it in the article

   Written straight

   Strong El Niño episodes are linked to about 112,681 fewer cold deaths and 107,035 more heat deaths worldwide, a net difference of about 0.17 per cent.

3. States a past association as a forecast

   Minor

   “there will also be 107,035 additional heat-related deaths”

   Why this matters

   The words 'there will also be' turn the study's average for past strong El Niño years into a certain toll for the coming one.

   The impression it gives

   A reader thinks the study predicts exactly 107,035 extra heat deaths from this El Niño.

   The context

   The article itself says the researchers based their figures on past events and that they should not be read as a forecast.

   How we know

   • Elsewhere in the article“their data is only based on events in the past”