Andy Burnham refuses to say whether immigration is too high ahead of Mahmood's overhaul of rules

Andy Burnham has declined to say whether he thinks migration levels are too high as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood prepared to set out sweeping reforms to the system. The Prime Minister said it was “difficult to say” whether legal migration was too high or too low, arguing it depends on the economy. Ms Mahmood will set out reforms on the length of time people will have to be in the UK before becoming eligible for permanent settlement, measures which have caused deep splits at the top of the Labour Government .

Speculation has mounted that the most controversial proposals – including increasing the five-year wait for claiming indefinite leave to remain (ILR) by up to 10 years for foreign care workers – could be watered down in the wake of criticism from senior Labour figures. Tensions in the Cabinet over the policy surfaced when Housing Secretary Angela Rayner earlier this year publicly attacked the prospect of backdating the plans. Read More: Shabana Mahmood expected to water down immigration crackdown after Labour backlash Read More: Mahmood immigration reforms risk repeat of Windrush scandal, campaigners warn Then Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh repeatedly refused to say she backed proposals to prolong the qualifying period for settlement.

Mr Burnham was questioned about immigration numbers by ITV Tonight for an interview which will air on Tuesday. He said legal migration has “come right down” and “I think when you have planned migration, it’s difficult to say is it too high or too low, because it’s got to be, if you like, following gaps in the economy”. “Because if you just put a number on it, then we may have a shortage in a certain area.” The Prime Minister said immigration – both legal and illegal – was “in a much better place than it was”.

“Because boat crossings are down and net migration overall is down and down quite significantly. “So there’s a much better control of it.” The Prime Minister, who has called for a discussion about the possibility of a return to free movement with the European Union, added: “What I have argued is that migration and illegal immigration changed significantly with Brexit. And I think we’ve got to be honest about that.” The Home Secretary will set out her new system following a lengthy consultation process.

Pressure to tighten up the rules has intensified as the so-called “Boris wave” of migrants who came during Boris Johnson’s administration begin to reach the current five-year threshold to qualify for ILR. Analysis published on Monday found skilled migrants settling in Britain are expected to contribute billions more to the public finances than they cost over their lifetimes. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said skilled migrants and their adult dependants due to settle in the UK under current rules are expected to make a net lifetime contribution of around £115 billion through the taxes they pay.

The think tank, which has been influential in Labour policy-making, said its findings offered a counterpoint to Government estimates that allowing overseas care workers and their adult dependants to settle in the UK would cost taxpayers £10 billion over their lifetimes. It said its analysis, using the same methodology as the Home Office, suggests skilled workers and their adult dependants expected to gain ILR between 2026 and 2030 under existing five-year ILR rules would make a substantial contribution to the UK public finances.

The figures include health and care workers, as well as those on other skilled worker visas. The IPPR said it welcomed reports that Ms Mahmood could scale back plans to lengthen the wait for settlement to 15 years for some lower-paid workers, exempting social care workers already in the UK. It said the move would be a “significant compromise”, given around 287,000 care workers and dependants are expected to settle between 2026 and 2030.

But it praised the step for protecting a group vulnerable to exploitation and supporting Mr Burnham’s vision for a new national care service. And the think tank called for ministers to find a compromise for other workers already in Britain, either by retaining their existing five-year route or introducing an interim status after five years providing a pathway to permanent residency and allowing them to change jobs without employer sponsorship.

IPPR associate director for migration Marley Morris said: “Public debate has focused heavily on the costs of recent migration, but this is not the whole story. “Our analysis suggests that over their lifetimes skilled migrants are estimated to make a net contribution of billions to the public finances. “We welcome signs that the Government is planning a compromise for its settlement reforms. “Ministers should honour the rules people came here under or offer a fair compromise that gives them a secure pathway to settlement and freedom to change jobs after five years.”

Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp said Ms Mahmood “appears to have capitulated control of immigration policy”. H said: “It’s clear Shabana Mahmood has been forced to surrender to Angela Rayner and the open-borders Labour left. “She will now allow hundreds of thousands of low-wage and no-wage migrants to stay in the UK forever and claim benefits.” Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “The Labour Party is at war with itself over indefinite leave to remain, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood losing a fight to the far left of her own party.

Tomorrow, she’s expected to cave on plans to even tinker with the ILR numbers.” Reform would “scrap ILR in its entirety and indeed rescind existing awards”, Mr Farage added. ILR is an immigration status that allows a person to live, work and study in the UK indefinitely and apply for benefits if they are eligible.