Lancet global health report understates threat of climate change, experts say

A global risk assessment that identifies nuclear war and the malicious use of AI as the gravest threats facing humanity has been accused by leading health experts of downplaying climate change . The row over the report, published by the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Threats to Global Health , reflects broader concern among climate scientists and activists that AI is increasingly dominating the time and energy of politicians at the expense of tackling greenhouse gas emissions.

The commission’s assessment deems AI and nuclear conflict threats with “extinction potential” while ranking climate change in a second category of “major catastrophic threats”, which include air pollution and high blood pressure. It highlights 17 threats in total. Dr Vanessa Kerry, the World Health Organisation special envoy for health resilience, said it did not make sense to separate climate change as its own category of risk. A graphic accompanying the report indicates climate change could cause less harm than smoking, obesity or alcohol use A graphic accompanying the report indicates climate change could cause less harm than smoking, obesity or alcohol use “It makes other threats worse,” she said.

“The way most of us experience climate change is not in degrees of temperature. It is our health. The air we breathe, the extreme summer heat, the floods and disease outbreaks.” Kerry said the Lancet medical journal, which established and runs the commission, is “deeply respected” by policymakers and there was a risk its report would drive funding priorities. “The way threats are quantified and presented here could encourage decision makers to prioritise one over another,” she said.

The Lancet Commission findings were unveiled on 11 October at the World Health Summit in Berlin, a gathering of health ministers and senior health officials from around the globe. Related articles: Richard Dawkins: ‘I thought AI wouldn’t come in my lifetime but it has – with a vengeance’ Data centre protesters fear hollow promise of protection gives AI firms a ‘golden ticket’ The assessment models how many years of life in good health might be lost due to each threat.

A graphic accompanying the report indicates climate change could potentially cause less harm than smoking, obesity or alcohol use. The report says the graphic is “not a ranking of policy priority and should not be read as one”. A second health expert, who asked not to be named, said the assessment “presents climate change as if it’s a problem for the next century, not this one. Climate change is a threat multiplier and that doesn’t seem to be well considered when you line it up against all these other threats.”

The Lancet Commission is co-chaired by Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle. The IHME was recently awarded a $540.2 million grant from the Gates Foundation. In a note published on his website last year, Bill Gates criticised a “doomsday outlook” on climate change, which he said was leading to a focus on emissions goals rather than measures “to improve life in a warming world”.

The second health expert said: “Real choices have been made to minimise the apparent threat of climate change in a way that seems deeply aligned to the memo issued by Bill Gates before last year’s Cop [UN climate change conference].” In a statement, the IHME described climate change as a “catastrophic and urgent threat to health and human survival”. The institute’s statement said: “The 17 catastrophic threats are not intended as a policy ranking.

They are interconnected, differ in how precisely they can be estimated, and several compound one another.” The statement added that the Lancet Commission received no funding directly from the Gates Foundation. What are your thoughts on this? Email us at letters@observer.co.uk Photograph by Tom Brenner / AFP via Getty Images Artificial intelligence Climate World Health Organisation Health Climate change