Iran still has up to 2,500 missiles, capable of major assault even after rounds of strikes - report
Iran is still believed to possess between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles, US officials told The Wall Street Journal on Saturday, citing US intelligence assessments, with even the lower assessment being over half of its estimated pre-war stockpile.
The officials said that it was difficult to track the exact number of missiles Iran possesses, including both those in storage and those ready for immediate launch, but that it was clear that it still had the capability to launch substantial attacks.Jim Lamson, a visiting research fellow at King's College London and former CIA analyst who specialized in the Iranian military, told WSJ that even before the war, estimating Iran's exact military capabilities was complicated.“Having done this work for the government, I know it can be extremely low confidence even with all the classified information,” he said.Iran's restoration of much of its military capabilities has also affected US President Donald Trump's decision-making on whether to launch more strikes alongside Israel, officials told the WSJ.Iran capable of building around 50 missiles per monthLast week, Bloomberg reported that an intelligence estimate has determined that Iran has the capacity to build approximately 50 ballistic missiles per month despite damage to its industrial capacity in the recent war."There could also be thousands of Shahed-type strike weapons remaining in its arsenal," Jim Lamson, a research fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College London and former CIA analyst for the Middle East, told Bloomberg.Jonah Davidov contributed to this report.
Left out here: Leaves out what changes the picture
The article never says that US intelligence agencies rate their own 1,500 to 2,500 estimate as low confidence. It says only that tracking the number is difficult, and in the same passage that it was "clear" Iran could still launch substantial attacks. A reader may take the range as firmer than the agencies themselves do. Jim Lamson's quoted remark about low confidence softens this gap.
How we know
- Arutz Sheva / Israel National News reported“The estimate, which US intelligence agencies consider to have a low degree of confidence”US intelligence: Iran still has up to 2,500 missiles (opens in a new tab)
- Ynet News (English) reported“officials said U.S. intelligence agencies have low confidence in the estimates”Iran rebuilding missile arsenal, with up to 2,500 missiles remaining, report says (opens in a new tab)