Trump weighs next move on Iran as Middle East conflict is blamed for election loss

As he takes stock of his Republican Party's midterm drubbing, President Donald Trump now faces the difficult question of what to do about his unpopular 8-month-old war against Iran. For weeks, Trump has threatened to return to a full-scale bombardment of Iran once the US elections were in the rearview mirror if Tehran did not come to a settlement on terms acceptable to him. In his first comments on Wednesday after Democrats' resounding election victory - a wave powered in part by the American electorate's dissatisfaction with the war - Trump largely agreed with Vice President JD Vance, who publicly said the war is a catastrophe for Republicans.

“It’s largely true because it drove gasoline up a little bit,” Trump said. Still, he doubled down on his decision to launch the conflict despite its high political cost. “At the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd do it again," he said. The strikes, and counterstrikes, have caused tens of billions of dollars of damage in the region. The conflict has reached into the wallets of families around the globe with elevated gas and oil prices causing rising costs in just about every sector.

The president put himself it the heart of the campaign, it did not pay off. Credit: AP Now, as Trump ponders his next move, the stakes couldn't be higher for Iran, the Middle East and the global economy writ large. Trump may be less restrained, but the conflict is now more complicated While oil is flowing again from the Strait of Hormuz with the help of US Navy escorts for international tankers, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels and a Saudi Arabia - led coalition fighting it out.

The situation in the Red Sea remains particularly volatile. The Houthis are attacking Yemeni civilians and Saudi infrastructure, and are looking to bolster ties with militant groups across the Horn of Africa. The attacks by the Yemen-based Houthis on areas controlled by the internationally recognised Yemeni government have also worsened a growing humanitarian crisis. Iranian's have generally viewed Trump's midterm defeat as a victory. Credit: AP Trump has a few options; he could choose to maintain something close to the current posture, with the U.S. military carrying out what it calls “defensive strikes” while continuing its naval blockade to restrict the flow of Iranian oil to the global market.

Another option is striking Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to its nuclear program that is buried deep underground in central Iran. Trump has repeatedly suggested he was considering targeting the site. Trump could then walk away and contend he had done sufficient damage to Iran's nuclear program — and perhaps try to pursue a “fig leaf agreement” that restores freedom of navigation to the Strait of Hormuz, offers Iran some degree of sanctions relief, and punts additional nuclear talks to the future.

A nother option would be to follow up on threats Trump made earlier in the war to launch massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure. US midterms: Donald Trump a 'lame duck' as Democrats win House and Senate Peston: What Trump’s midterms humiliation augurs for Britain But such escalation would likely exacerbate the oil and energy price problem that many voters cited as a reason for supporting Democrats on Tuesday, Schenker said. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil tumbled below $95 on Wednesday after the election, touching its lowest level in two months, a signal that markets do not expect major strikes.

Middle East officials had been hanging on Trump’s every word in the weeks leading up to the US elections, looking for clues on how the Republican leader was weighing his next steps. Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News. Direct to your inbox every Friday morning. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed for renewed strikes on Iran during a call over the weekend with Trump, who would not commit to taking military action, according to a person who was briefed on it.

Meanwhile, Vance appeared to more forcefully pin the electoral debacle on the Iran war than his boss Trump, who initially blamed the GOP's candidates for the big loss. “The reason we lost,” Vance said of the midterm elections in a lengthy social media post, “is the war.” Vance, a potential 2028 presidential contender, had been among the most sceptical inside the White House on the wisdom of launching the war but got on board with Trump's decision once he made it.

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