Trump's Gaza plan stalls as Israel's political deadlock deepens

Negotiations over the future of the Gaza Strip have reached a standstill, even as Washington continues pressing for implementation of U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to end the war. Sources familiar with the talks describe a significant diplomatic impasse, with no meaningful progress toward the next phase of the American framework. Meanwhile, Hamas remains armed and is attempting to rebuild its ranks, while the IDF continues targeting the terrorist organization's operatives.

The situation has been further complicated by the political deadlock following Israel's October 27 election. With no clear parliamentary majority and no certainty over the formation of a stable government, Israel's political leadership faces significant obstacles to establishing a long-term policy for Gaza.

That uncertainty directly affects decisions about advancing the American plan. While Washington wants to see progress, Israeli officials still do not know what the country's governing policy toward Gaza will look like in the coming months.

Israeli security officials also believe Hamas is preparing an international public relations campaign focused on the humanitarian consequences of the approaching winter. According to sources familiar with the assessments, the terrorist organization is expected to highlight weather-related damage, inadequate infrastructure and shortages of warm clothing and essential supplies for Gaza residents.

Israeli officials assess that Hamas intends to use the humanitarian situation to increase international pressure on Israel, hoping that criticism will lead to a suspension of targeted strikes or at least a reduction in their frequency.

The sensitivity surrounding Israeli military operations has already affected the pace of strikes in Gaza. In August, amid diplomatic tensions with Washington and statements by the Gaza Board of Peace concerning targeted strikes in central Gaza, the IDF's Southern Command was required to obtain approval from the highest military and political levels before carrying out certain targeted killings.

That policy remained in effect for several weeks and led to a reduction in the pace of aerial operations against Hamas terrorists.

Major change planned in management of Rafah pilot

Despite the diplomatic stalemate, preparations are advancing for one of the central components of the American plan: the "Green Rafah" pilot project.

Over the past month, the IDF has concentrated efforts in the Tel al-Sultan neighborhood of Rafah, sealing underground tunnels in the area. The objective is to neutralize the underground infrastructure ahead of the pilot's expected launch in the near future.

However, a significant change is approaching in the project's management. In recent months, an Israeli project management company signed an agreement with the Gaza Board of Peace, the international body responsible for overseeing parts of the Strip's reconstruction. Under the agreement, the company will assume responsibility for managing the tunnel-sealing project on the board's behalf.

The IDF is expected to withdraw from the civilian management and execution of the project, transferring responsibility to a dedicated administration operating under the Board of Peace and American management.

The company has already completed its logistical preparations at Kerem Shalom, including arrangements at a concrete plant that will support the work. Within the next two weeks, it is expected to formally take over management of the project from the IDF.

As part of the transition, contracts with construction companies and concrete suppliers will be transferred to the new administration. Responsibility for delivering materials, locating underground tunnels and conducting drilling operations is also expected to shift to the civilian management team.

The arrangement is intended to move a central element of the reconstruction preparations out of the IDF's direct civilian management structure, even as the military continues its security operations in the area.

IDF continues targeting Hamas terrorists

While preparations for the civilian pilot proceed, IDF military operations in Gaza have not stopped.

Southern Command forces continue operating against Hamas terrorists who, according to the military, are attempting to restore the organization's capabilities and advance plans for attacks.

Several members of Hamas' military wing were killed in Israeli strikes over the past week, including Nukhba operatives and terrorists who participated in the October 7, 2023, invasion of Israel.

The IDF maintains that the Hamas terrorists targeted throughout the war, particularly in recent weeks, were involved in rebuilding the organization's military capabilities and planning attacks against Israeli troops and civilians, in what the military describes as systematic violations of the ceasefire.

The military also emphasizes that Southern Command forces remain deployed in accordance with the agreement and that operations to eliminate threats will continue.

The developments highlight the growing gap between Washington's diplomatic objectives and the situation on the ground. The United States is pressing to advance the next stage of Trump's plan, transfer responsibility for civilian projects and launch the pilot program in Rafah.

Yet Hamas continues to retain its military capabilities, the IDF continues carrying out targeted strikes and the central question of disarming the terrorist organization remains unresolved.

Above these obstacles hangs Israel's political uncertainty, which complicates decisions about the Strip's future and the extent to which Jerusalem can commit to the American framework.

For now, despite sustained US pressure and preparations on the ground, there is no indication of a significant breakthrough that would allow the diplomatic process to move forward.