Mecca defense pact faces test as Saudi delegation arrives for high-stakes Iran talks - analysis

Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman arrived in Tehran on October 26. This is part of talks between Iran and the countries of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. These countries include Turkey and Pakistan.This is important and tests the agreement.The agreement is a defense agreement, modeled to some extent on NATO. However, questions remain about how the agreement will work. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia led to questions about whether Turkey and Pakistan would come to the aid of Riyadh.The test in Tehran is whether the countries can come away with something practical. Skeptics about the pact's members have argued that the three countries are not making the agreement have teeth. Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Head of Turkish Intelligence Ibrahim Kalin are also arriving in Iran. These are heavy hitters in the region. Munir has been to Iran recently.Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on October 26 that Iran's hosting of senior military and security officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey is a key step toward building regional diplomacy. He added that this could help with lasting stability and security in the Middle East.He also argued that the region could achieve such stability only by working together. This basically is messaging that the region needs to handle its own problems, without more US bombing. Iran prefers this. It's not clear if the US and Israel will sign on. The US and Israel have both been saying openly that the war with Iran will continue.Most Israelis see the US-Israel relationship as larger than just one personThe US President Donald Trump has twice endorsed Israel's prime minister to remain in power to keep fighting Iran, essentially arguing that the US can't work with anyone else in Israel on fighting Iran. This is surprising to many Israelis because most Israelis see the US-Israel relationship as larger than just one person, and most Israelis also agree on the need to confront Iran. Iran's regime can read the news just like everyone else. It knows the reports are that Jerusalem has ordered the toppling of the Iranian regime. It also knows that reports in Jerusalem say the Israeli military was reticent to carry out strikes right before Israel's elections. The presence of a high-level Turkish, Pakistani, and Saudi delegation in Tehran would seem to imply that most of those countries think war can be postponed for a few more days.This test may show that the new Saudi Arabia-Pakistan-Turkey agreement is more about shared interests, diplomacy, pragmatic meetings, and consensus-building on regional issues than about tanks and warplanes working together on the battlefield. Many commentators asked whether the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement would be like NATO. However, NATO has historically not been about waging war; it's more about bringing together Western democracies, with their militaries training together and sharing operations and culture.NATO hasn't engaged in many wars in its 77 years since its founding in 1949. The demand from some that the Mecca pact will immediately rush into war largely misunderstands the pact and the countries involved. Saudi Arabia is a cautious and conservative state. Monarchies tend to be cautious and conservative; otherwise, they put themselves at risk. Turkey, by contrast, was more militarily active in 2016-2022 and has since become more cautious. Pakistan, despite recent clashes with India and Afghanistan, is also a conservative and cautious state in contrast to how it was decades ago. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan established a new trilateral security alliance in AugustThe background of the Mecca pact is worth examining. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on August 7, 2026, establishing a new trilateral security alliance. The agreement was signed in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.The agreement includes a collective defense clause under which an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all three. It also calls for expanded military cooperation, joint exercises, intelligence sharing, defense technology development, and cooperation between defense industries.The alliance brings together three significant military powers, including nuclear-armed Pakistan and NATO member Turkey. It could have important implications for the regional balance of power and emerging security arrangements in the Middle East. The agreement also establishes a Strategic Political and Defense Committee to coordinate cooperation. Turkey published the full text in October as it moved toward parliamentary ratification.Meanwhile, in Riyadh, Arab News said that “the Kingdom's Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman is leading a delegation to Tehran for talks between countries party to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and Iran, to help ease regional tensions, Saudi Arabia's deputy minister for public diplomacy said on Monday.”The report added that “the meeting will be held with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Secretary-General of the Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei.” This matters because Riyadh views it as part of ongoing efforts by the Mecca pact states to de-escalate the current situation and encourage dialogue and diplomatic solutions, Arab News added, citing a post by Saudi Arabia's Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy, Dr. Rayed Krimly.