How Israel hopes third war with Iran will be different than Gaza - analysis

Many Israelis expect a third round of war between the US-Israel and Iran – and whoever else in the region Tehran pulls in. The next question many have is: Will this really be the last battle or just another “round” in a series of new, seemingly endless rounds?Israelis' experience with seemingly endless rounds of fighting can be seen on multiple fronts.But it is most fresh regarding Gaza, where major conflicts were fought in 2008-9, 2012, 2014, 2021, along with another half-dozen or so minor conflicts, all before October 7.If so, might Iran just become the new Gaza problem?In other words, might Iran become an adversary who is too scary to go all out against and so cannot be completely beaten but only contained, deterred, and delayed from perpetrating future attacks on Israel?Iran may only be containable, not beatableMight Iran become an unending series of “hiccups” when ballistic missiles rain down on all of Israel's cities (not, like old days with Hamas, “just Sderot”), and the whole country shuts down with people hiding in their bomb shelters?What will that mean for routine life, foreign investment, and the constant need to produce hugely expensive air-defense interceptors, not to mention air travel?

This is assuming that Israel maintains the heavy upper hand and the Islamic Republic does not, at some point, surprise Jerusalem with a new weapon or tactic which could cause far more harm.With all of those questions, why would Israel roll the dice to attack now, when there is no immediate danger from Iran either with respect to its nuclear or ballistic missile program? Both those issues could eventually return to being threats, but they are not expected to be major or imminent for several years.There are at least two hopeful factors which some Israeli officials think could make this third round more effective – and the general struggle against Iran more successful and faster than the drawn-out, almost 20-year struggle with Hamas.Officials point out that there are tens of millions of Iranians who hate the regime and want to tear it down – a much more formidable challenge for internal rebellion than Hamas ever faced in Gaza.They also point out that Israel has the most powerful country in the world – the United States – fighting side-by-side, or in this case fighter jet squadron-by-squadron.There are numerous counterpoints which could make Iran's regime harder to topple than Hamas, not least that a major land operation is either politically impossible or militarily highly impractical.But these two positive points deserve attention.When Hamas said it could wait out Israel during another round, it had almost zero opposition, and it was saying it could wait out a small country of 10 million people whose economy is highly vulnerable to minor disruptions.By contrast, a million Iranians came out to protest against Iran's regime on January 8-9, and the American military has maintained a show of force and economic pressure now for most of 2026 in a way that Israel could never have done.Even Israel's October 7 war with Hamas was never really two years long.

It was usually a few weeks of intense fighting, followed by months of much lower-key patrolling or even withdrawing until another fight.Optimistic to believe Tehran may bend on nuclear issueSo optimistic Israeli officials think that the regime in Tehran may really either bend on the nuclear issue or even be toppled at some point by an additional round of attacks combined with pressure.They are far from certain that they are right.After dropping more than 30,000 bombs on Iran over 40 days in early 2026 did not achieve nuclear concessions, let alone topple the regime, they would be blind to assume victory is around the corner.But that does not mean that their gamble – if it happens – might not pay off.Whether it will be worth the cost to the Israeli home front will be a much more complex calculation.