Countries on the fence over COP31’s flagship target

ANTALYA, Turkey — As world leaders arrive at the U.N. climate conference, the fate of the summit’s flagship pledge hangs in the balance. On Tuesday, the Turkish hosts held a ministerial meeting aimed at “showcasing early support” for their proposed target of raising electricity’s share of global energy consumption to 35% by 2035, an idea dubbed 35x35. Only a smattering of governments, however, have explicitly backed the goal so far. Many major economies and big emitters have stayed mum.

One diplomat from a developed country said that, for now, only a dozen nations were prepared to sign the pledge. The tepid endorsement comes as presidents and prime ministers fly into Antalya for the conference’s leaders’ summit on Wednesday and Thursday. In the corridors, and occasionally in press conference rooms, negotiators voiced concerns about the pledge’s alignment with emissions-slashing efforts, the financial aid needed to implement the goal, and whether a brand-new target is necessary at all.

“On the electrification issue, the target is clear, but how can we move together?” asked Adão Soares Barbosa, climate envoy of Timor-Leste and chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group in a press conference on Tuesday. “The LDCs are categorized as [having] limited economic capacity to address this electrification issue, this 35x35. So we call upon all parties … to provide financial support. So that we can move together.” Explicit endorsements were limited to a handful of developed countries, island nations and governments involved in hosting current or upcoming climate summits.

Fossil fuel producers such as Saudi Arabia, or big polluters such as China and India, remained silent. Germany, Norway and Ethiopia — which is hosting next year’s COP32 summit — were among the countries that publicly backed the pledge in the ministerial meeting. The European Union, though it still has a few bureaucratic boxes to tick, is poised to sign up to the target, POLITICO reported earlier on Tuesday . Others offered soft support for electrification as a theme or made clear that their backing was conditional.

Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s climate minister, told POLITICO the pledge would need to clarify that the increase in electrification should be achieved only with renewable energy. “We support it, but only if the electrification is from renewable sources,” he said. “We don’t support electrification from fossil fuel sources.” The United Kingdom also appeared to be on the fence about supporting the target, emphasizing the link to clean energy.

“The U.K. is strongly supportive of clean electrification. We warmly welcome the focus of the COP presidency,” London’s Climate Minister Katie White said at the ministerial. “Achieving the ambition we need will require electrification to proceed hand in hand with clean power growth.” Pakistan’s Climate Minister Musadik Masood Malik told the ministerial that his country “welcomes” the target, but emphasized it must not tie governments down.

“We appreciate that it creates no binding national targets or additional reporting obligations,” he said. “Its success depends on practical pathways that respect different national circumstances, development needs, and capacities.” Brazil, which hosted last year’s climate conference, offered only lukewarm support. “Brazil fully supports the proposal of electrification,” Climate Minister João Paulo Ribeiro Capobianco told a press conference Tuesday.

Then he highlighted Brazil’s use of biofuels, saying the combination of biofuels and electrification was the best way for Brazil to achieve the pledge. Spokespeople for the Turkish summit presidency did not respond to questions. The Australian co-hosts of COP31, who are leading the formal negotiations at the conference, said they were currently exploring how to include the electrification theme in the final decision text. The International Energy Agency, which co-hosted Tuesday’s ministerial, exhorted countries to back the pledge.

“If it was signed by many, many countries … this will give the markets [and] investors an unmistakable symbol that electricity is the future,” said IEA director Fatih Birol. “It’s the reason this will not only be another pledge, another target — it’s the turning point in the electricity sector.”