US warns Gulf countries of possible Iran war escalation after midterm elections

Several countries in the Gulf have been told to prepare for a short but intense military campaign in Iran after the US midterm elections next week. But analysts have said an escalation may not be effective in bringing Iran to its knees. The Wall Street Journal has reported there are indications that the US and ally Israel are preparing a fresh wave of attacks on Iran, in a bid to degrade Tehran and push it toward negotiations. This comes as Americans prepare to take to the polls on Tuesday, November 3 in a midterm election that could rattle the Trump administration.

The US is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel to ramp up its missile defences in the country, flight tracking data showed and two officials with knowledge of the movement said. The US has also moved troops off bases in the Middle East where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation . The war in Iran has been a key issue for US voters. Mr Trump often describes the conflict as a "little detour" but it has emerged as an unforced liability for the president, who once promised to keep the US out of foreign wars.

Republican strategists privately acknowledge the war is severely damaging the party's push to retain control of Congress for the final two years of Mr Trump's presidency, as rising gasoline prices drive up costs across nearly every sector. Analysts have said that Iran is unlikely to surrender under further attacks. The country sustained over 20,000 strikes by the US and Israel during the most active phase of the war, but still managed to strike ships in the Persian Gulf, attack US troops and warships and make demands during negotiations.

"I believe one of the biggest mistakes Israel and the United States continue to make is assuming that another round of strikes against Iran, including attacks on critical infrastructure or the elimination of senior officials, could somehow bring down the regime," said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official. US President Donald Trump is understood to be leaning toward a large post-election attack, but has not yet made a decision, people familiar with his thinking said.

Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites could be the focus of an attack. Mr Trump has also said he will not launch an offensive against Iran before the midterms. "We may do another little Epic Fury," Mr Trump said at a rally last week, referring to the heavy US and Israeli campaign in February that sparked the conflict. The White House said it would not comment on "sensitive military plans that may or may not exist." "President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon," the White House said.