Fossil fuel-related CO₂ emissions show slight global drop, an encouraging but insufficient sign

The offshore installation vessel 'Vole au vent,' used for assembling wind turbines, off the coasts of the Île d'Yeu and Noirmoutier, on April 2, 2026. STEPHANE MAHE/REUTERS For the first time since 2020, during the height of the Covid pandemic, CO 2 emissions linked to fossil fuels are expected to decline slightly in 2026. This drop is due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has reduced global oil and gas consumption, and to the rapid deployment of wind turbines and solar panels.

Emissions are projected to fall from 38.4 billion metric tons in 2025 to 38.2 billion metric tons this year (a 0.4% decrease), according to the report released Tuesday, November 10, by the Global Carbon Project. Emissions had increased by 1.2% between 2024 and 2025. The 21 st edition of this study, published as a preprint (not yet peer-reviewed) in the journal Earth System Science Data , was carried out by an international team of more than 140 scientists.

It comes as the 31 st global climate conference (COP31) opened Monday, November 9, in Antalya, Turkey. Leaders from around the world have gathered to try to accelerate efforts against climate disruption, which is driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil and gas. Read more Subscribers only COP31 conference in Turkey aims to move climate up the agenda in a crisis-rocked world The Global Carbon Project's authors say the slight decline expected this year is an encouraging sign, but not yet sufficient to suggest that emissions have reached their peak.

When factoring in emissions from land-use changes, notably deforestation, total CO 2 emissions are still expected to increase slightly in 2026 to 43.3 billion metric tons. You have 78.19% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.