Trump has threatened to escalate his Iran war after the US midterm election. Is Tehran prepared for that?

Officials in Tehran are preparing for renewed strikes following media reports that the United States and Israel have been examining new options for escalating their war against Iran. The US midterm elections on November 3 and Israel's October 27 election have injected a political factor into how both countries are approaching the conflict, which they launched in late February. Polls show that high energy prices brought on by the Iran war are hurting Donald Trump's Republican Party. On October 8, the president posted on social media that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran. The United States last launched strikes on Iran in early September. After the elections are over, however, Trump may feel less politically constrained. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has campaigned on a platform of regime change in Iran. Analysts say Iran's regime is preparing to clamp down on unrest unleashed by possible US strikes [FILE: 2022] Image: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/picture alliance Report: Plans in place for 'short' US-Israeli operation Citing senior US officials the New York Times reported on Wednesday that the United States and Israel have "developed specific plans" for a "short but intensive operation" in Iran that would include targets such as nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and the country's arsenal of missiles and drones. One official told the newspaper that the goal would be to force Iran into making "diplomatic concessions" by further weakening its economy, as negotiations to end the conflict have gone nowhere. The United States has also maintained a blockade of Iranian oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz that has sapped Tehran's oil revenues. Other outlets have reported similar plans in recent weeks. In early October, Axios reported that the Pentagon has instructed US Central Command "to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran." There are currently two US aircraft carrier strike groups in the Arabian Sea, with a third expected to arrive by late November. On October 15, Trump told the right-wing broadcaster Newsmax that he was considering a strike on Pickaxe Mountain , near the Natanz nuclear complex, where US officials say Iran may have moved sensitive nuclear-related material underground. A day later, CNN reported that Trump is considering using a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb on Iranian targets. As the MOAB creates a humungous blast wave above ground, its effectiveness in targeting underground facilities such as Pickaxe would be limited. Has Iran learned from earlier attacks? Iranian officials say they are prepared for another attack, with a broad response that would include strikes on US bases and energy facilities in the Gulf. Ali Asghar Shafieian, a media adviser to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, told DW that, although the United States retains a significant technological and military advantage, Tehran's strategy is based on preserving the regime's hold on the country rather than matching US strength. "The United States has the upper hand in military power and technology, but Iran's strength is in how it deals with a crisis," Shafieian said. Shafieian pointed to the rapid replacement of senior officials killed in previous attacks as an example of how Tehran has tried to make its political structure more resilient. Iran has also been rebuilding missile and drone capabilities that were hit during the massive wave of strikes during the first weeks of the war. Citing Iranian officials, the Reuters news agency reported this week that Iran is "preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," adding that Tehran was prolonging negotiations to try to weaken Trump ahead of the midterms. Iran has told regional governments that US military bases and critical infrastructure could become targets if neighboring countries assist another US or Israeli operation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that participation or cooperation by regional states would result in a "decisive and proportionate response." "Iran is prepared to give diplomacy another chance if we see strong evidence of a sincere desire by US to build trust & reach a just solution," Araghchi posted on X Wednesday. "But, if US chooses war over diplomacy, it'll certainly result in an even greater strategic failure." US military buildup: What message is it sending Iran? To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video How Iran prepares for new strikes? Rahman Ghahremanpour, a Tehran-based political analyst, told DW that Iran's preparations extend beyond missiles and drones to prioritizing internal security. That includes confronting armed opposition groups, preparing for possible protests and developing plans to prevent external military pressure from combining with domestic unrest. Another conflict, he said, could bring renewed internet restrictions and a stronger mobilization of government supporters in public spaces. "In the government's asymmetric-war strategy, the ultimate objective is to convince the United States that regime change through military action is impossible," Ghahremanpour said. Ghahremanpour added that some factions within Iran have supported returning to a negotiated agreement. But he believes that Washington's demands are now considered so extensive that even Iranian officials who favor compromise struggle to build domestic support for them. "For now, we are facing a deadlock," Ghahremanpour said. "Iranian officials do not appear optimistic about reaching an agreement." Talks continue to snag on Iran's nuclear program , which US officials say must top the agenda. Iran's latest proposal to the United States, sent through Qatari mediators, included an offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, in exchange for the US's lifting its maritime blockade, releasing frozen assets and ending military actions. Citing data from the ship tracker Kpler, the Wall Street Journal reported this week that oil flows through Hormuz are approaching prewar levels as the US military escorts tankers and shipping companies are more willing to take risks for a bigger payoff. This raises questions about whether Iran's leverage over oil flows might be weakening. Trump threatens to 'annihilate' Iran if no deal is reached To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Fear of war inside Iran An escalation in the confrontation would come at a moment of severe economic pressure and growing political polarization for Iranians. A doctor in Tehran told DW that she fears what would happen should fighting resumed. Speaking with the media in Iran remains very dangerous, and she spoke under condition of anonymity. "The economic situation has become extremely bad," she said. "Even if you have a good income yourself, you don't feel good living among so many people struggling with poverty," she added. She expects authorities to restrict internet access again if fighting resumes. A woman in Tehran described anger toward regime supporters and said another war combined with domestic protests could increase the risk of confrontations on the streets. Asked about possible attacks on underground nuclear sites, she said the issue felt increasingly detached from her everyday problems. "What do the nuclear sites have to do with us?" she said. "They are inside mountains." Iran's regime: inside the system protecting its rulers To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Edited: Emmy Sasipornkarn