Iran is trying to break Trump’s stranglehold by hitting him where it hurts

Iran’s leaders were never going to passively submit to slow strangulation. Facing Donald Trump’s blockade of their ports and the near-total loss of their oil exports, the regime is now striking back across the Middle East, aiming to inflict enough damage to force America to relent. In the last seven days, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have broken out of their highland strongholds and advanced down the coastal plain, seizing key positions alongside the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where the Red Sea meets the Indian Ocean. Ever since Iran began attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz , the Bab el-Mandeb has become the principal outlet for Saudi Arabia’s oil. The kingdom has managed to re-route about two thirds of its exports – more than four million barrels per day – via the Red Sea. Iran is now doing everything possible to wreck this alternative, which is why the Houthis have strengthened their hold on the choke point, where they have positioned Iranian-supplied anti-ship missiles. True enough, this Yemeni movement does not take orders from Iran. The Houthis are far more willing to accept weapons than instructions. They have been at war for most of the last 32 years for reasons that have little to do with their alliance with Tehran. Yet the latest Houthi advance coincided with Shia militias in Iraq – which are under Iranian control – launching a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline on the night of Sept 10-11. That is the vital link which brings oil from the kingdom’s biggest fields near the Gulf across 750 miles of desert to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, for onward passage mainly via the Bab el-Mandeb. The attack on the pipeline – just as the Houthis were strengthening their hold on that very choke point – shows this operation was an Iranian counter-move, designed to sabotage Saudi oil exports. So far, Iran’s venture has succeeded. Once the oil in storage at Yanbu has been loaded, Saudi Arabia will have to suspend its Red Sea exports until the pipeline is repaired, which could take weeks. The world will lose about 4 per cent of its oil, in addition to the longstanding disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, explaining why the price of a barrel of Brent crude has risen by 10 per cent in the last week to $107. By driving up the oil price , Iran’s leaders want to impose a cost on the US economy and make gasoline more expensive before the mid-term elections in November. Most importantly, Iran also aims to wreak enough destruction to compel Saudi Arabia to use its influence in Washington to urge Trump to settle the conflict. And Iran’s price for any de-escalation – calling off the Iraqi militias and restraining the Houthis – would certainly include the lifting of America’s blockade of its oil exports. So this is how Iran is trying to break Trump’s stranglehold. And there is plenty more that the Islamic Republic’s leaders might do. They could, for example, resume firing ballistic missiles at the other Gulf states with the twin goals of forcing the oil price still higher and inducing more US allies to implore Trump to reach a new peace agreement. That option would, of course, risk heavy American retaliation. But, in their own terms, Iran’s actions are logical and effective. It does not follow, though, that they will necessarily succeed. Some Gulf states, instead of trying to restrain America, might do the opposite and urge Trump to strike even harder at their common enemy. Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has already asked Trump to bomb the Houthis. The United Arab Emirates is officially co-operating with the US campaign to asphyxiate Iran’s economy, known as Operation Economic Outcast. Meanwhile, the US navy is striving to loosen Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz by ensuring safe passage for the tankers of friendly nations. Last Wednesday, Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, claimed that ships carrying nearly 11 million barrels of oil were making it through the waterway every day. That was probably an exaggeration – and even if it were true, the outflow would still be well below the pre-war total of almost 20 million barrels. But there is no doubt that the number of transits is higher than during the first stage of the conflict, in March and April, when Iran imposed an almost complete closure. One certainty is that none of the tankers now passing through the Strait of Hormuz is carrying Iranian oil. By ruthlessly blockading the country’s ports, America is suffocating the regime’s financial lifeline. Might Iran’s retaliation force Trump to relent? Or will the leaders of the Islamic Republic steadily lose their grip as they run out of oil money? In other words, we’re now waiting to see who will crack first.