Israeli Election Poll: New Far-Right Party Sinks Under Threshold, Smotrich Gains

A new poll published on Sunday shows former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot's bloc gaining a seat, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc loses two, partly reflecting shifts in the far-right electorate, with gains for Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich coming at the expense of Ofer Winter's new far-right party, which falls below the electoral threshold.

According to the poll by Israel's public broadcaster Kan, Netanyahu's bloc would receive 51 seats. Matching other recent polls, the latest poll also shows a majority of 65 seats for the opposition parties.

However, due to the boycott of Arab parties pursued by some parties in Eisenkot's bloc, the bloc is at 52 seats. Both Arab parties, Mansour Abbas' United Arab List and the Joint List, win a combined total of 13 seats.

The Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel, which is not considered part of any bloc, passes the electoral threshold with four seats, while Amcha Yisrael remains below the 3.25-percent electoral threshold, at 3.1 percent. Last week, the party won four seats. Religious Zionism, on the other hand, strengthened from five seats in the previous poll to seven in the current one.

According to the poll, Yashar and Likud each gained one seat compared to last week: Eisenkot's party receives 23 seats, and Netanyahu's party 21.

Together, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, maintains its strength with 12 seats. The Democrats gain one seat and receive nine seats. Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List receive eight seats, as in the previous poll.

Shas also wins eight seats, one more than last week's poll, and Otzma Yehudit loses one seat, also receiving eight seats. United Torah Judaism weakens by one seat, standing at seven seats. The United Arab List maintains its strength with five seats.

Kahol Lavan, led by Benny Gantz, does not pass the electoral threshold but gained slightly from the previous poll, receiving 1.1%, compared to 0.9% in the previous poll.

The poll was conducted by the Kantar Institute, led by Dudu Hasid, and included 554 respondents. The sampling error was 4.2%.