Meet the Press – July 7, 2026

KRISTEN WELKER: This Sunday. Escalating. The war with Iran intensifies -- as casualties mount, oil prices rise and the administration asks Congress for billions more to pay for it. [BEGIN TAPE] PRES. DONALD TRUMP: We’re locked and loaded and ready to go. [END TAPE] [BEGIN TAPE] SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO: Their policy is an eye for an eye. The president’s policy is a head for an eye. [BEGIN TAPE] SEN. GARY PETERS: When will you show leadership? SECRETARY OF DEFENSE PETE HEGSETH: Why don’t you show some leadership and stand up to your fellow Democrats who won’t fund the troops? [END TAPE] KRISTEN WELKER: I’ll talk to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz and Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Plus — 100 days. [BEGIN TAPE] TROY JACKSON Let’s get to work winning this race. [END TAPE] KRISTEN WELKER: With just 100 days until the midterms — the battle for control of Congress comes down to a handful of key races. Steve Kornacki breaks down the races to watch. And — finding strength. Our “Meet the Moment” conversation with Today Show’s Sheinelle Jones on the challenges of navigating grief and motherhood. [BEGIN TAPE] SHEINELLE JONES: There is this common language in grief and motherhood. And when you put those two things together, the reaction that I’ve received has been bigger and more powerful than I could’ve ever imagined. [END TAPE] KRISTEN WELKER: Joining me for insight and analysis are New York Times White House Correspondent Tyler Pager. Adrienne Elrod, former senior adviser to the Harris campaign. And Lanhee Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution. Welcome to Sunday. It’s Meet The Press. ANNOUNCER: From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is Meet the Press, with Kristen Welker. KRISTEN WELKER: Good Sunday morning. Today marks 100 days until the midterm elections. At stake: control of Congress. Will the war in Iran -- and its impact on the economy -- hurt Republicans’ chances of holding onto power? Or can Democrats flip the House and Senate? Even as a fight rages within the party over its future. Joining me for a look at all of it: NBC News Chief Data Analyst Steve Kornacki. Steve, good morning. Thank you for being here. So much we’re watching with 100 days to go. STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, the countdown really is on. Let’s put in perspective the landscape here. The bottom line number for Trump, this is an average of all the polls right now. Trump at 41% approve. Compare that to his first term, the midterm in 2018. At this point, he is a little bit lower now than he was then. I think no mystery about what’s driving this. Okay, this is from a Fox News poll recently. But look at Trump on the issues here. Majority disapprove everywhere. His best mark is 42 on immigration. Look at those numbers on Iran, on the economy, on inflation. Goes a long way to explaining the overall approval rating. KRISTEN WELKER: Absolutely. STEVE KORNACKI: And then there’s this. How does he stack up with recent presidents at this same point here? Again, you see Trump at 41 now, 43 in 2018, and you see the others. KRISTEN WELKER: Yeah. And we should note that in almost all of these cases the party in power lost seats in the midterm elections. Slightly different picture in 2022 with former President Joe Biden. STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, that’s the interesting thing. Democrats did lose the House in ‘22, but it was only a few seats. And they actually gained a Senate seat. And that’s what Republicans are hoping to do some version of, ironically enough, this year. And Republicans think that their one chance is the image of the Democratic Party. We’ve been seeing it in the primary season. Socialists winning Democratic primaries, candidates from the far left. And look at this here. Among Democrats, this is that Fox poll, a majority have a favorable view of socialism. Step outside the Democratic Party, it’s a totally different world. Look at Independents. Socialism deeply unpopular there. So is that a vulnerability for Democrats that would keep them from capitalizing on Trump’s obvious weaknesses here? Look more specifically at the two chambers here. Senate side, this if you’re a Democrat. This is the particularly tough one. They need a net gain of four seats to get control of the Senate. Take a look at the map here. How would they get four? Four is their target number. There’s — first thing, they can’t lose ground. Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, Democrat seats. Big primary coming up in Michigan in a few weeks there that could have general election implications. Democrats have to win those just to not lose ground. Then the two Republican seats they think they have the best shot at would be Susan Collins in Maine. Democrats have a new candidate there now. And in North Carolina, where Democrats have nominated the former governor there. It’s a close state in ‘24. If they do that, they still need two more. And where could they get those two? This is where it gets real tough for them. KRISTEN WELKER: It’s uphill. STEVE KORNACKI: Look at this. These are the four they talk about. Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas. And look at this, Kristen. They were all not just Trump states — double-digit Trump states. Democrats would need at least two of those to get the Senate. House side again, this one’s more manageable for Democrats. That’s the current balance, some vacancies. They only need a gain of a few seats to flip it. It wouldn’t take that big of a night. Two bellwether tests on the Republican side: Mike Lawler, New York. You see this. One of the few House Republicans in a district that Trump lost. Is he able to hold on in a climate like this? If he does, that could bode well for Republican chances. Flip side of this, Texas. Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez. Remember, they redrew the lines, Republicans did in Texas, to take advantage here — this is deep South Texas — of those Hispanic gains Trump made in 2024. This district would’ve gone for Trump now by 11 points. If Gonzalez is able to survive here, it was say those Hispanic gains, maybe they’re not translating past ‘24 for Republicans. Maybe they’re not transferring to other candidates. And of course, hanging over all of this is the big X factor -- KRISTEN WELKER: Iran. STEVE KORNACKI: — the war with Iran. And you could see it here. A new poll from Politico, basically two-thirds, 36 plus 29, 65% say the war shouldn’t continue, or only if costs to Americans don’t increase. But here’s what really stands out, Kristen: the MAGA Republican base. It’s now 56% who share that opinion here. Go back a couple months, that number was only 29% and 12%. That number was only 41%. From 41% to 56% in the President’s base. KRISTEN WELKER: This is significant because this is really one of the first times we’ve seen erosion in President Trump’s MAGA base. STEVE KORNACKI: Absolutely. And volatility. Still months to go before the election. KRISTEN WELKER: All right. So much to watch. Steve Kornacki, thank you so much for being here to break it all down for us. Well, for his part, President Trump is weighing whether to escalate the war in Iran further amid concerns the war could be expanding. [BEGIN TAPE] PRES. DONALD TRUMP: They’d love to make a deal. I don’t think they’re ready to. I don’t think it’s time yet. But I’m willing to listen. But they cannot have a nuclear weapon. [END TAPE] KRISTEN WELKER: Steve Kornacki, thank you. For his part, President Trump is weighing whether to escalate the war in Iran further amid concerns the war could be expanding. And joining me now is U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz. Ambassador Waltz, welcome back to Meet The Press. UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: Thank you. It’s good to be with you. KRISTEN WELKER: It’s great to have you here in person. I do of course want to start off by talking about Iran. The U.S. has been conducting nightly raids against Iran for the past two weeks really. In recent days, the president said the U.S. was, quote, “locked and loaded.” And he was considering a massive strike, he said. Then on Friday and Saturday, no strikes were reported in Iran. Has the president decided against escalation for now, Ambassador? UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: I wouldn’t go that far at all. The president is keeping all options on the table. I’ve spoken with the negotiators. I’ve spoken with Secretary Hegseth. What the president is doing right now, as we’ve seen all along, is giving some talks some space. Talks are ongoing. They’re happening at every level from the more technical aspect of it, all the way to the highest levels of course within both the Iranian government and the U.S. government. What we are constantly seeing though is the Iranian, on the Iranian regime side they are divided. There is internal fighting. Some are seeking the guidance of the supreme leader. Others want to move into a different direction. And that makes it hugely challenging from a diplomatic standpoint but to get to some reasonable resolution here. KRISTEN WELKER: So are strikes effectively halted for the next several days? Or can we expect to see some strikes tonight, tomorrow, in the coming days? UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: Well, I would take the president very seriously if I was the Iranian regime. The U.S. military is locked and loaded. In fact, more assets have gone into the region. And as we’ve seen, he has- we have focused on those assets that have illegally struck civilian shipping. I mean, look, we have to take a step back here. This is like the Somali pirates with cruise missiles. I mean, they are desperate in the sense that now we’re attacking ships from Panama, from Cyprus, from Singapore. A number of civilian mariners have been killed. And, at the end of the day, the president has decided, and he is going to see this through, that the Iranian regime cannot and will not have a nuclear weapon. But also, they cannot illegally in this kind of terrorist fashion hold the rest of the world’s economies hostage. KRISTEN WELKER: You raise assets. I want to ask you about the assets. NBC News is reporting the Pentagon is actually rationing some defense weaponry amid diminishing supplies. Is America backing away from a larger military attack because its military stockpile has been depleted? UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: Well, look, we have to take a step back here in that a lot of stockpiles were depleted not only from what we gave Ukraine over the last however many years, four or five years. And the administration inherited -- the secretary -- Secretary Hegseth inherited a depleted situation from not only Ukraine but also the ongoing fight with the Houthis under the Biden administration and the depleted military under the Biden administration. So they have decided, one they’re going to new types of munitions, cheaper munitions, new technologies, but also with these new defense budgets, rebuilding our great military. However -- KRISTEN WELKER: But you acknowledge — UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: — I don’t — KRISTEN WELKER: — they’re depleted? UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: No, I want to be clear. KRISTEN WELKER: But you acknowledge they’re depleted — UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: No, I want to be — KRISTEN WELKER: — at this moment? UN AMBASSADOR MIKE WALTZ: I want to be crystal clear. The U.S. military, and I’ve verified this every which way, has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be. And I have to just tell you, the people that are leaking this nonsense deserve to be in jail. KRISTEN WELKER: Well, let me ask