As airstrikes in Gaza continue, support for 'armed resistance' grows, Hamas popularity drops - poll

More than half of Palestinians support a two-state agreement with east Jerusalem serving as the capital of a Palestinian state, according to a new poll published on Wednesday by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research think tank.Though 53% overall support two states, with 56% endorsing consultative talks with Israeli figures they deemed “anti-occupation,” only 48% of Gazan respondents said they would agree with the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside a Jewish one.The survey collected data from 909 Palestinians in the West Bank and 488 in the Gaza Strip, living outside Israel-controlled territory, and had a margin of error of 3.5%.Asked what the current obstacle to Palestinian statehood was, 41% said it was the expansion of Israeli settlements while only 23% said it was internal Palestinian divisions.The Palestinian think tank attributed the increase in support for armed resistance among Gaza residents to ongoing Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip. Compared with the August poll, support for armed resistance rose from 21% to 37%, slightly above the overall average of 33% recorded across both Palestinian territories. Diplomacy remained the most popular option, however, with 42% of Palestinians supporting it and a further 18% supporting popular nonviolent resistance as the most effective path toward establishing a Palestinian state.Neither Hamas nor Israel won the war, say 62% of PalestiniansDespite the increase in support for armed “resistance,” 62% of Palestinians polled said neither Israel nor Hamas had won the war. While 17% said Israel had emerged victorious, only 16% viewed Hamas as the winner. Still, around three-quarters of Palestinians overall, 69% in the Gaza Strip and 78% in the West Bank, felt Israel should withdraw from the Gaza Strip before Hamas disarms.Most Palestinians were also pessimistic about the ceasefire's prospects, with 61% expecting insecurity to continue. Only 42% said they trusted the technocratic committee to govern Gaza. Trust in the committee was significantly higher among Palestinians in Gaza than among those in the West Bank, at 60% and 29%, respectively.In terms of party affiliation, only 19% of Palestinians identified with Hamas, down from 24% in August and 35% ten months earlier. Less than a quarter (22%) said they supported Fatah, but a commanding 33% identified with none of the listed parties.Additionally, while the August poll found a three-way race for leadership between Marwan Barghouti, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the latest poll suggests growing support for independent figures. Only 34% said they would support Barghouti's leadership, while 13% backed Palestinian businessman Bashar Masri nationwide, rising to 21% among respondents in Gaza. Mustafa Barghouti received 12% support.PA elections pushed back to next SeptemberThere is also still a strong desire for the Palestinian Authority to move ahead with the elections in November, which Abbas has pushed back to September next year. More than half, 53%, support holding elections on schedule on November 28 without delay, and an additional 21% favor a short operational postponement of under six months to ensure administrative inclusivity, while 20% oppose holding elections altogether.Overall voter turnout intention was found to be around 55% among eligible voters, though only 31% of young citizens aged 18–22 report being registered on the voter rolls, and their overall voting intention lags at just 46%.There is also significant willingness to vote for a newly formed candidate list, around 56%, and when testing nine candidate lists among likely voters who have finalized their choices, the National Independent List led by Bashar Masri tied for first place with the list backed by imprisoned leader Marwan Barghouti, each securing 22% of the vote.Both the independent figure and imprisoned Fatah leader hold more support than the jointHamas-Dahlan List, which only received 20% support, and the official Fatah list led by Palestinian Vice-President Hussein al-Sheikh and backed by President Abbas (13%), and the National Initiative led by Mustafa Barghouti (13%).According to the survey, Masri's appeal was closely linked to confidence in his ability to manage Gaza's economic recovery and improve the cost of living, with 30% saying they trusted him to do so. Mustafa Barghouti received a similar level of trust, at 29%. Confidence in senior Palestinian Authority figures was considerably lower, with only 6% trusting Hussein al-Sheikh and 8% trusting Jibril Rajoub to manage these challenges.