Tuesday briefing: The world is falling short on climate action. Can Cop31 change that?

Good morning. After another year of unprecedented droughts, floods and wildfires driven by human-caused global heating, 91 heads of government will meet tomorrow in Turkey to discuss the climate crisis. They will do so against a backdrop of global instability and conflict. But as high-ranking officials and civil society campaigners settle in for a fortnight of speeches, protests and labyrinthine negotiations at the UN’s 31st annual climate conference, Cop31 , many are asking what the point is.

Those same governments pledged more than a decade ago in Paris, at Cop21, to limit global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, but implementation has been sclerotic, and only two months ago a UN report warned temperatures will reach at least 1.8C using even the most optimistic future projections. I spoke to the Guardian’s environment editor Fiona Harvey in Turkey about what’s on the Cop31 agenda, what success looks like and why Brazil’s re-elected president Lula will be the star of the conference.

Five big stories UK | Russell Brand was sentenced to more than 10 years in prison on Monday after a judge praised his victims’ bravery and accused him of living “unhindered by the rules by which decent people live”. US | Donald Trump, Elon Musk and prominent finance moguls have expressed their support for embattled Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, as the head of the world’s most valuable chip company faces an internal investigation over a romantic relationship with an alleged Chinese spy.

Russia | US officials said they would seek a “final end” to the war between Russia and Ukraine, beginning with trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday in the first substantive negotiations between the two countries since February. Technology | Palantir lobbied a health minister to consider extending its AI technology into GP records, stretching its reach into the NHS in a way doctors fear could undermine trust with patients. Climate | Soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran have encouraged people to look beyond fossil fuels , leading to an easing of climate-damaging carbon emissions this year.

In depth: Why the world is still failing to turn climate promises into action View image in fullscreen A Brazilian delegate arrives on the opening day of the Cop31 annual UN climate conference in Antalya. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA The 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – or Cop31 – is taking place in the Turkish coastal city of Antalya until 20 November. The conference centre – which, as at every Cop meeting, is temporarily designated UN international territory and policed by UN security officers – is set on the outskirts of the city.

At this time of year, it is usually the venue for a global conference of plastic surgeons, part of a billion-dollar industry in Turkey. But this week and next it will host an estimated 70,000 registered delegates, from the professional lanyard class to civil society campaigners. When we spoke at lunchtime, Fiona had already spotted Indigenous groups from the Amazon, Australia and the Pacific in national dress – a colourful sight at every Cop, where indigenous delegates know they can attract significant media attention.

When I reported with Fiona from Cop26 in Glasgow, five years ago, inclusivity was a major theme, with observers from Indigenous communities, trade unions and environmental NGOs complained that they had not been given sufficient access to formal negotiating spaces, and staged a symbolic walkout on the final day. This is a long-running argument, says Fiona, alongside running questions about the scope for campaigners to host protests and alternative gatherings around the conference venue.

“Four out of five of the last Cops were held in countries with repressive regimes,” she reminds me, where scope for outside dissent was very limited. Annual Cop summits rotate between countries from different regions of the world, but this year a rancorous dispute between Turkey and Australia has resulted in an unhappy compromise. Turkey is the official host and in charge of the action agenda, the “jolly bits” that surround the voluntary agreements, rather than the tension of formal negotiations.

Australia is in charge of those, which will see countries thrash out the details of just transition and climate finance programmes. This is “the short straw” says Fiona, with none of the pleasing global focus of physical hosting, and with climate advocates questioning Australia’s credibility to manage these negotiations as a major fossil fuel producer. Although Turkey is hardly a better fit: as Fiona puts it, “The one thing they have in common is their mutual admiration for coal.”

What’s the point of Cop31? Formal negotiations this year will mainly be focused on the just transition mechanism, which aims to ensure people who are working in fossil fuel industries aren’t completely abandoned in the move to renewable energy, as well as helping poorer countries - who happen to be significantly less responsible for the climate crisis – to access enough finance to deal with the worsening climate crisis. This year, Fiona has sensed less urgency from global leaders over Cop31.

Alongside the anticipated absence of the Trump White House, as well as China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi, there are some other disappointing no-shows. The UK’s Andy Burnham is due to arrive, alongside the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen, but the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor Friedrich Mertz will not attend, nor will Canada’s Mark Carney. Fiona also questions whether the Cop process is fit for purpose.

“The negotiation processes are endlessly convoluted and cause their own problems. It took more than five years just to negotiate the Paris ‘rulebook’ under which the treaty is put into effect. And the convention that all resolutions must pass by consensus has given petrostates free rein to obstruct progress,” she says. But Fiona, a Cop optimist, says there are two places where progress can be made. The first is through the informal discussions, known as the action agenda, which generate voluntary commitments alongside the binding commitments under Paris.

The second, the part of the formal negotiations known as the “cover decision”. Some of the “really dynamite” advances from previous Cops can be found in this text – such as the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, which every single country signed up to at last year’s Cop30 in Brazil. This year, Brazil’s president, Lula, is expected to bring a plan for how to make that happen. *** What could be achieved at this year’s conference?

The UN argues that rapid action to cut greenhouse gas emissions would limit the Paris agreement overshoot and bring down global temperatures by the end of this century. This can’t happen without a transition away from fossil fuels and the Brazilian delegation is bringing a detailed global roadmap for how this can be done – though it won’t be part of the formal negotiations.. While the Brazil roadmap does not include a timetable for phasing out fossil fuels, it is still an important contribution as it sets out the different dilemmas that countries face – such as losing tax revenues by cutting fossil fuel use, for instance, or axing subsidies which might have helped poorer households.

“This means governments can recognise the issues they will face in their transition, as well as the benefits, and plan accordingly,” says Fiona. The talks will also seek support for a new 2035 electrification goal, backed by Turkey and Australia, under which 35% of final energy use around the world coming from electricity instead of fossil fuels. This comes as China’s oil imports, for instance, are likely to be down about 12% this year, in part owing to a massive uptake of electric vehicles , with many other countries following suit – but not the UK it seems.

As we reported exclusively yesterday, ministers are expected to make steep cuts to the government’s EV targets – their biggest decarbonisation policy – in a move that will alarm many Labour MPs who are concerned about the government’s commitment to the green agenda and may be embarrassing for Burnham as he flies into a conference with electrification so high on the agenda. Some experts argue that the inbuilt efficiency of electric tech compared with fossil fuels means that a global switch to electrification would halve energy demand around the world.

What else is good? China – still one of the world’s biggest polluters – is dominating energy transition with some astonishing results: its renewable generation capacity has now outstripped coal, saving billions of dollars for consumers and businesses as the oil price soars. And solar is booming in Africa at last , adds Fiona. The re-election of President Lula has buoyed climate activists everywhere, who take hope from his success in beating far-right populism with an unashamedly climate-focused agenda, which aims to secure the vitally important Amazon rainforest for future generations.

This is his first international trip since last month’s electoral triumph, and Fiona predicts he’ll receive “a stupendous welcome.” His presence is also important as a vocal champion of climate justice. “He says very clearly it’s the elites, of both developed and developing nations, who are responsible for the biggest emissions with their high carbon lifestyles and investments in fossil fuel companies, not the ordinary people”. We’ll likely hear more from him about his proposals for a potentially transformative global wealth tax – at previous international summits Brazil has argued for a 2% tax on those with assets worth more than $1bn.

“He wants the people who have benefited from this to pay. It’s a hugely powerful message. How can you argue against that?” For even more on Cop31 from Guardian journalists on the ground in Turkey, sign up here to get our environment newsletter, Down to Earth, straight to your inbox skip past newsletter promotion Free newsletter | Every weekday Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what’s happening and why it matters Enter your email Sign up after newsletter promotion What else we’ve been reading View image in fullscreen Dense fog shrouded the Thames on Monday.

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