Iran rebuilding missile arsenal, with up to 2,500 missiles remaining, report says

The U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Iran has between 1,500 and 2,500 ballistic missiles in its arsenal, The Wall Street Journal reported overnight Saturday into Sunday, citing U.S. officials.

According to the report, an arsenal of that size would leave Iran with significant capabilities to strike U.S. military targets and American allies in the region if another war breaks out. However, officials said U.S. intelligence agencies have low confidence in the estimates because of the difficulty of determining exactly how many missiles Iran has ready to launch or in storage. Nevertheless, they said it is clear that Tehran retains a formidable missile stockpile.

Although the United States and Israel struck Iran's missile production facilities, Tehran has continued rebuilding its arsenal, albeit at a slower pace than before the war, primarily using components stockpiled in advance, the officials added. Tehran also has large numbers of drones and short-range missiles at its disposal.

Iran's efforts to replenish its arsenal contradict statements by senior U.S. administration officials, including President Donald Trump himself, that its military had been destroyed. According to the officials, the rebuilding effort is also influencing internal discussions within the Trump administration over whether to launch another offensive against Iran alongside Israel.

The Journal noted that Israeli military officials also believe Iran has more than 1,500 ballistic missiles, although assessments across the region vary. Simone Ledeen, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during Trump's first term, said that even the lowest estimate of 1,500 missiles would mean Iran had replenished more than half of its estimated prewar stockpile. She said Tehran rebuilt its arsenal between the 12-day war in June 2025 and the start of the current war in February.

Israeli and U.S. officials said Iran's use of ballistic missiles, drones and more sophisticated tactics to target U.S. military facilities, radar installations and early-warning systems across the Middle East prompted Washington to relocate numerous U.S. military assets to Israel, which is considered safer.

While U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf have told the Trump administration that they do not want to return to war with Iran, the Journal noted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to push for renewed strikes against Tehran. Mossad chief Roman Gofman traveled to Washington on Friday for talks with U.S. officials on the matter.

Speaking at a Veterans Day ceremony on Wednesday, Trump suggested that the U.S. had yet to achieve a complete victory over Iran. "We fought back, and we seriously fought back. And we won, just a question of when we want to end it," he said. "We want to make sure we have a total victory, not a 93 percent victory. It's going to be total."

In an interview Thursday with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump said he would consider it a "defeat" if Iran's regime remained in power when he leaves office.

Jim Lamson, a visiting research fellow at King's College London and former CIA analyst specializing in Iran's military, said it is difficult to determine how many missiles Iran has because of the secrecy surrounding its arsenal and the various manufacturers involved. Another unknown is how many new missiles Tehran can assemble using ready-made components stored underground.

He said the uncertainty surrounding prewar estimates of Iran's missile stockpile makes it even harder to assess how many missiles Tehran currently has. "Having done this work for the government, I know it can be extremely low confidence even with all the classified information," he said.

Destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities was one of the main goals of the U.S. and Israel when they launched the war. Both countries declared the joint offensive a success, with Netanyahu claiming that Iran's missile program had been crippled and that its remaining missile stockpile was "running out."

However, an Israeli official said that despite suffering severe damage, the Iranians are "rebuilding and rearming" and preparing for another serious round of fighting.

In April, the Journal reported that Tehran had retained thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles that could be recovered from underground sites. Israeli and American strikes collapsed the entrances to the facilities where the missiles were stored, but satellite images released since then have shown that Iran has regained access to some of them by excavating the blocked entrances.

An Israeli official said the missiles stored at the underground sites likely survived intact.