Why can't Beirut be trusted to deal with Hezbollah? - analysis

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called on Monday for “stricter enforcement” against weapons outside state control and armed displays following the seizure of more than 500 kg of explosives linked to Hezbollah, insisting there should be “no leniency” for those “compromising the country's stability.” Yet his remarks raise two key questions: why has he waited until now to demand tougher action, and how can the international community and the Lebanese people trust Beirut to rein in Hezbollah when Aoun has yet to demonstrate that his government is willing to enforce its own decisions?More than a year has passed since Lebanon's cabinet tasked the army with implementing a plan to bring all weapons under state control, and more than seven months since Beirut banned Hezbollah's military activities. Despite this, Hezbollah has continued to fire at Israel, traffic weapons in southern Lebanon, stage armed demonstrations, and threaten the country's security. Its military operations in populated civilian areas have also cost Lebanese civilians their lives.Over 4,000 killed in Lebanon since MarchThe Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reported in August that more than 4,300 people had been killed in Lebanon since the conflict escalated in March. Had Hezbollah not attacked Israel in response to the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and had it complied with its obligations under the 2024 ceasefire agreement and UN Security Council 2006 Resolution 1701, thousands of lives would have been spared. With the consequences of Hezbollah's continued defiance so apparent, why did Aoun not call for stricter enforcement sooner?Aoun's remarks come amid mounting concern over the recent seizure of 500 kg of explosives being transported to Beirut. Some in Lebanon fear the shipment may have been intended for a domestic attack reminiscent of the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafic Hariri, who was killed in a massive truck bombing in Beirut alongside 21 others. More than 200 people were wounded in the blast.Hezbollah has acknowledged ownership of the explosives, but disputes claims that they were intended for use against targets inside Lebanon despite repeated threats of civil war, maintaining that they were meant for use against Israeli forces. The group has also demanded the release of the two individuals arrested in connection with the shipment and the return of the seized explosives.The question is not simply whether Lebanon can investigate the explosives seizure before national anger burns itself out, but whether its institutions will hold those responsible accountable. In April, a month after Hezbollah's military activities were banned, The Jerusalem Post reported that individuals accused of weapons trafficking had been released on bail. Two Hezbollah members arrested on suspicion of trafficking weapons were reportedly released after bail was set at 100 million Lebanese pounds, approximately $1,120, while others were reportedly freed on bail of as little as $20 to $21 after spending only a few days in detention.Lebanon's overcrowded justice system presents another obstacle to enforcing the ban on Hezbollah's military activities. The recent amnesty law, which reduced sentences and enabled the early release of detainees, has highlighted the strain on the country's prisons. Yet no public plan has emerged outlining where or how the state would detain large numbers of Hezbollah operatives if it began systematically enforcing the law.More Hezbollah operatives than space in Lebanese prisonsThe Alma Research and Education Center estimated in August that fewer than 40,000 Hezbollah operatives remained active, with tens of thousands more in reserve. If just 5% of the active operatives, or 2,000 people, were imprisoned for violating Lebanese arms law, they would occupy approximately 42% of the country's total prison capacity of 4,760 places, according to figures published by Human Rights Watch and Prison Insider.“It is unacceptable to tolerate any attempt to undermine security or threaten the country's stability, and the current phase demands the highest levels of readiness and coordination between the security and military agencies, along with continuous exchange of information and precise assessment of developments, far from any duality in roles or conflict in jurisdictions,” Aoun said on Monday, failing to name Hezbollah.Compounding these concerns, a Lebanese political official close to discussions scheduled to take place in the US on Tuesday told The National that Beirut had repeatedly rejected offers to coordinate militarily with Israel. Israel clearly has both the willingness to disarm Hezbollah, given its own national security concerns, and has repeatedly demonstrated its intelligence and military capabilities over these past three years.Given the limitations of Lebanon's legal system, stemming from both a lack of material resources and the apparent unwillingness of judicial officials to act, calls for stricter enforcement are hollow. Neither the Lebanese nor the Israeli public can trust Beirut to bring Hezbollah under control as things currently stand.