As the blockade squeezes Iran, ordinary people pay the price of war

W henever he looks at his bank account, Mehrdad’s heart races. The Iranian school teacher barely earns a salary equivalent to $100 (£75) a month, which vanishes in days as inflation rockets. He dreads the thought of his mother calling to ask for help. “To put it simply, I have developed heart palpitations from seeing my empty bank account and worrying that my mother might call and ask me to buy something she needs,’’ he says. Most commented 1 My partner died. Then I found a text: ‘Shall we have an affair?’ Sex & Relationships 191 comments 2 I sleep with my dogs. A new study proves it’s better for me Pets 124 comments 3 500 arrested as French police use tear gas during student protests Europe 50 comments 4 Harvey Elliott was England’s next great hope. Now he’s out of the picture Football 59 comments 5 Oliver Glasner: Premier League’s integrity at risk if Man City case drags on Football 30 comments Sanctions and a US naval blockade have led to Iran’s worst economic crisis in recent memory. The measures are aimed at forcing the Islamic regime to capitulate in negotiations and end the war that has sent shockwaves through the global energy market. Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran Amirhosein Khorgooi/Isna/Via Wan/Reuters But for now, the only ones who appear to be rethinking their choices are ordinary Iranians. Many say they are compromising on buying essentials such as food and medicines, while hardliners in the government who view the war as an existential conflict continue to defiantly confront the US. Top stories 1 Trump Jr’s ex-fiancée ‘asked donor to pay 0k credit card bill’ US politics 2 Trump’s war with Iran doubles the cost of his rides in ‘the Beast’ US politics 3 Starbucks ‘explores takeover’ of Chipotle Mexican Grill US business 4 ‘More lives will be lost’ unless UK takes action on wildfires Environment “The picture is really grim,’’ said Dina Esfandiary, the Middle East lead at Bloomberg Economics. “Inflation is sky rocketing, and [Iran’s] oil exports are close to zero … the currency is crashing. It’s undeniable that [the crisis] is there, it’s being felt daily.’’ Advertisement Iran’s currency, the rial, sinks to record lows every week, now trading at almost three million to the dollar on the open market. Shelves are emptying at shops and pharmacies are reporting shortages. With no end in sight to the war, Iranians are braced for further pain. Top stories 1 My daughter works part-time — can she rescue her retirement? Ask Times Money “The market is so unstable that nobody has any certainty. Not the buyer and not the seller,” said Mehroo, a pharmacist in Tehran. “You cannot plan for anything.” ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images She likens the dread of waiting for an injection after an arm is swabbed. “They have rubbed the alcohol swab on you, but they do not give you the injection. Your muscles remain clenched as you wait for the pain.’’ Some found themselves forced to give up their medications because they can no longer afford them, while meat has become a luxury item. Women who have had nail extensions are now returning to their salons to have them removed, so they would no longer have to pay for their upkeep, one beautician said. ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images “The price of everything has become astronomical,” said Donya, the beautician who works at a salon in the city of Rasht. “People now have credit accounts at bakeries and buy bread on credit.’’ Advertisement There is also an unemployment crisis, with millions of jobs lost after businesses closed down and industries such as steel manufacturing were destroyed in the war. Those with work face delayed salaries and pay cuts. How long can Iran withstand economic siege by the US? President Trump has repeatedly claimed Iran is “desperate” to make a deal to end the war. In a message posted on Truth Social on Thursday, he insisted that “productive discussions” were still taking place. But he has also threatened to resume military strikes against Iran after the midterm elections next month. Trump wrote: “I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” While the US can point to the economic suffering as proof that its sanctions and blockade are working, the hardliners who run the Iranian government appear more inclined to escalate the conflict than to surrender. Advertisement “It’s a bit of a push and pull between the technocrats and some of the more hardline figures inside the Iranian system,’’ said Esfandiary. “Those that are more hardline are very much focused on Iran in the war, in the present. ‘How do we sustain our war effort? How do we ensure we outlast the US and that we are still standing at the end of it? And whatever economic and other crises we’re left with, future Iran will deal with it after the war’,’’ she said of their thinking. Relative pragmatists within and outside the government have cautioned that the country cannot shoulder the mounting costs of war. Hassan Rouhani, a former president who is part of the so-called reformist camp, even suggested a referendum on whether the conflict should continue. Hassan Rouhani ZUMA Press Inc/Alamy Live News However, the regime may have overplayed its hand. By choking off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, it forced the US and Israel to sue for peace in June with a ceasefire that could have led to sanctions relief, but then resumed its attacks on shipping when it suspected the US was trying to bypass the blockade. The US effort has in large part succeeded, with oil exports now nearing their pre-war levels as Iran loses its grasp over the strait. A war launched by Tehran’s Houthi allies in Yemen has again strained energy prices after the rebels targeted Saudi oil installations, but the pressure does not appear enough to sway Washington into re-opening the June ceasefire agreement. Advertisement “That does not mean Iran is going to fold,’’ said Esfandiary. “Tehran views this moment as existential; it’s about the survival of the Islamic Republic. If Iran capitulates the Islamic Republic does not survive so there will be no difficult decisions to make after the war,’’ she said. Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA That leaves the regime with one bad option: escalating attacks on shipping and Gulf energy installations. While that would further raise energy prices ahead of US congressional elections in November, something the White House has sought to avoid, it would also invite more American bombardment and dry up whatever funds have been surreptitiously paid by Gulf countries to Iran to avoid their missile and drone attacks. “Iran’s options are narrowing as the blockade bites while more Gulf oil finds its way through,’’ said Ali Vaez, who heads the Iran project at the International Crisis Group. “Tehran can either watch its Hormuz leverage steadily depreciate, or escalate sufficiently to restore the fear factor,’’ he said. “The gamble is that greater pressure improves Iran’s bargaining position before the US midterms without triggering the uncontrollable escalation Tehran has so far tried to avoid.”