El Niño Could Bring More Great White Sharks to California Beaches

Great white sharks could remain near California beaches later than usual and move further north as El Niño brings warmer ocean conditions to the West Coast, researchers and state wildlife officials say, after already observing increased juvenile white shark activity in parts of Southern California during 2026. Elizabeth Hellmers, a senior environmental scientist at the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), specifically confirmed to Newsweek that “there has been an increased number of sightings being shared on social media in 2026, as well as drone footage showing high abundance off Southern California beaches.”

What Is El Niño And How Does It Affect the Sea? El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific. It develops when surface waters across parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than average and the trade winds, which usually push warm surface water towards the west, weaken. Read More on News The change affects ocean and atmospheric circulation, altering temperature, rainfall, and weather patterns around the world.

In the southern United States, El Niño is commonly associated with wetter conditions over the winter, from fall through to spring. The warmer ocean conditions associated with El Niño can extend northward toward California, raising coastal water temperatures and potentially expanding the areas where juvenile white sharks prefer to live. The current event is arriving after a separate marine heatwave had already raised temperatures off parts of the California coast.

Why Warmer Water Could Bring More Sharks ... Juvenile great white sharks generally favor warmer nearshore waters more than adult sharks. Warmer waters can, therefore, expand their residence northward and allow them to stay in California for longer, instead of moving south toward Mexico as they would typically do. Hellmers told Newsweek that juvenile white sharks are commonly found close to the shore in Southern California from around April through to October.

“At this point it is still too early in the year to tell if they will remain later than usual,” Hellmers said. “However, due to the current water conditions and forecasts for the late fall and winter, it is likely that we will continue to see them in our nearshore waters.” She said juvenile sharks had been reported further north, including around Monterey, as they have during previous warm-water years. Beaches from San Diego to Santa Barbara serve as nursery grounds for young white sharks, and reports of increased numbers have emerged across that region.

Neil Nathan, a senior research scientist at the Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory, said its SharkEye drone-monitoring program had “observed an increase in the abundance of white sharks” in its Carpinteria survey area, which is a section of nearshore waters around Carpinteria, in Santa Barbara County, this year. “The earlier marine heatwave in 2026, compounded by warmer temperatures from this emerging El Niño, are likely factors driving this increase,” Nathan told Newsweek.

Nathan said warmer waters during previous El Niño events have been associated with juvenile white sharks moving further north, appearing as far north as Monterey Bay, where “juvenile sightings have historically been rare.” His team has recorded more sharks in 2026 than during the past few years, although he’s still analyzing eight years' worth of data to determine how much of the change can be attributed specifically to the change in sea temperatures.

Scientists Seeing Unexpected Changes Dr. Chris Lowe, a professor in the Department of Biological Sciences and director of the Shark Lab at California State University, Long Beach, told Newsweek that shark activity had recently changed in ways researchers didn’t anticipate. ... According to Lowe, a group of 20 tagged white sharks that had been gathering in one area all suddenly left within four days following a recent storm. Some traveled north and others south, despite local water temperatures remaining within the preferred range for juvenile white sharks.

“We don’t know” whether El Niño caused the movement, Lowe said. “It is very likely that the El Niño , marine heatwave and resulting Kelvin wave are contributing to this behavior or changing the distribution of preferred prey causing sharks to move.” A Kelvin wave is a large movement of warm water that travels across the ocean and can carry warmer conditions toward the coast—in this case, toward the California coast. Lowe said newborn white sharks appeared as early as February this year, compared with a more typical start around April.

The number of sharks increased at several locations where they typically gather through the summer and peaked in September, before the largest group unexpectedly dispersed. “This is the beginning of adult white shark season off the offshore islands and central California coastline, so we’re starting to see larger, older sharks moving along the coastline,” Lowe said. Juvenile sightings remained high but were spread across the Southern California coast, he added.

Sightings Do Not Equal Attacks ... CDFW doesn’t maintain an official count of every shark sighting, meaning social-media posts and drone videos can’t by themselves establish a statewide population increase. The department defines an incident as one where a shark actually approaches or touches a person or an object in the water like a surfboard, kayak, or paddleboard . Sightings without contact don’t count. Since 1950, California has documented fewer than 250 shark incidents involving all species, fewer than 20 of which were fatal.

The department stresses that shark bites are “extremely rare in California” and that official incidents haven’t increased in proportion to the growth in swimming, surfing, and other ocean activities. Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here . Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Emma Lee-Sang