Is Andy Burnham laying a Brexit trap or falling into one?

I s UK prime minister Andy Burnham laying a Brexit trap for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch or walking into one himself? Commentators are divided. Talk of Brexit has been taboo in Labour since the fall of the so-called “red wall” in 2019, when Labour strongholds flipped to voting Conservative in response to the party’s dithering response to Brexit. Keir Starmer adopted the Basil Fawlty approach of ‘don’t mention the war’. Burnham seemed to dump that policy at last month’s party conference, saying the UK needed to have an honest debate about the “harm” Brexit has done.

And to consider the best option for closer ties with the EU, whether that involved rejoining the bloc’s customs union or regaining free movement via single market membership. The conversation should include the possibility of a full rejoin, Burnham said. Starmer would have run a mile from such rhetoric. But inside the UK government there is a feeling that the public mood around Brexit is shifting. A recent national opinion poll put the number of voters in favour of rejoining at 59 per cent, almost double those who oppose it.

Among Labour voters, those in favour were 85 per cent. [ The Irish Times view on the UK budget: grasping for growth Opens in new window ] Burnham has since doubled down on his policy pivot, claiming he would like to see Britain rejoining within his lifetime while claiming there was Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit vote, in effect questioning the validity of the result. Although he has ruled out a possible re-run of the Brexit vote in this parliament, he has hinted he could fight the next general election on a promise to take the UK back into the EU if voters backed the move in a second referendum.

His new outspoken stance on Britain’s thorniest of issues has the potential to steal votes from the pro-Europe Liberal and Green parties, but surely the real target is Badenoch. It would leave her having to campaign under a “Save Brexit” banner when most voters see it as a failure. By breaking the code of silence around Brexit, he also leaves Badenoch defending the UK’s low-growth status quo, seen by most as the main challenge. Economists are unequivocal.

Brexit has cost the UK economy. It is 6-8 per cent smaller (than it might have been) as a result. Exports to the EU are down 14 per cent. On trade, Britain can’t avoid the gravitational pull of Brussels. If the aim is to revitalise the economy and avoid a debt spiral like France, having a closer trading relationship with your biggest trading partner makes sense. [ France is likely heading towards ECB support and a Marine Le Pen presidency Opens in new window ] And that’s before you consider the changed security environment with the US now supporting a country attacking Europe’s eastern flank.

Burnham’s Brexit trap would also push Badenoch further under the umbrella of the anti-immigration right, potentially alienating centrist voters who didn’t vote for Brexit in the first place. His policy shift is not without risk. Relitigating Brexit could jam the political bandwidth, relegating his domestic agenda to a sideshow. A summary of the UK government’s cabinet meeting before Wednesday’s budget put Burnham’s comments about Brexit above even those concerning the budget, which was due to be delivered soon afterwards.

Worst-case scenario for Labour is that the debate morphs from an economic one into a row about culture and identity, populist calling cards. This could play into the hands of Reform , whose voters are most energised by issues of sovereignty and immigration. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has described Burnham’s move to reopen the debate as a “gift”. But Burnham has argued that Britain’s control over immigration – the Leave side’s chief aim – has been weakened by Brexit.

Immigration, he says, has switched from a revolving door trend – with students (from the EU) coming and going after a short stay – to a long-term residency trend. “I think we’ve got weaker control now. The reason the small-boats crisis has arisen is because we can’t return people, and people know we can’t do that in the same way that we used to be able to do,” Burnham said. [ ‘The focus is finding people from Ireland’: The EU’s big ask for new English translators Opens in new window ] Rather than getting mired in defending past Tory administrations, Badenoch has attempted to flip the narrative, calling Burnham a “Brexit bore”.

She also claims Labour is exploiting “Brexit freedoms” – on VAT in particular – for its own ends. But that’s just nitpicking. She’ll need a more coherent answer to why Britain should not seek to boost its growth trajectory via closer ties with the EU. Reopening the Brexit debate runs the risk of exposing divisions within Labour itself; home secretary Shabana Mahmood is said to be uneasy about the shift. The party’s “red wall” MPs will not relish going into the next election on the back of another polarising Brexit debate.

In Burnham’s favour is that his pro-European stance hasn’t generated the sort of public backlash many might have predicted. Maybe the political mood in Britain has changed.