New York Post, on Iran, 31 October 2026

7.3out of 10Serious

If Iran war erupts,

Tap a highlight to see why it matters.8 findings

The Iran War may kick into high gear after the midterms, as a third aircraft carrier is headed to the region and President Trump has warned all hell could break loose. The USS Theodore Roosevelt, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, was making its way to the Middle East – joining two other carrier task forces in the region, the USS George Washington and the USS George W. Bush. President Trump told Kansas City radio station KCMO Friday that the war is “going to get wrapped up soon” – without specifying how.

Iran war critic Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who said he had been briefed on fairly detailed planning on what the war plan would be if the US restarted operations, ripped the idea during an Oct. 29 appearance at the Middle East Institute: “Their plan is insane. It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.” 6 The USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading toward the Persian Gulf region as signs point to the Iran War possibly restarting after the midterms.

REUTERS He didn’t provide specifics, but mentioned civilian infrastructure that may get targeted. “The plan that they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that in my view will be devastating for our security interests,” he said. Another lawmaker, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who has spent time with President Trump recently, predicted that the war would be over soon. “I’m going to guess about a day or three after this election, I would not want to be anywhere close to Iran,” he said at a campaign stop Thursday.

If war does erupt after the midterms, could soon find targets on their backs — and explosives in their pockets. Explore More US Embassy issues rare warning over ‘credible threat’ of imminent ‘mass casualty’ event at tourist hotspot in Moscow Violent protests in France draw 70K people as Molotov cocktails hurled at cops, US and Israeli flags burned Ex-Palestine supporter blasts ‘insane’ movement for ‘cherry-picking’ oppressors Former Mossad Deputy Head of Global Operations Oded Ailam told The Post that a dramatic, “Operation Grim Beeper”-style attack to wipe out the junta’s leadership remains fully on the table.

“This is the bread and butter of Israeli strategy, is surprise twists and turns, unexpected moves and I’m absolutely certain that Israel has cards in the sleeve that will be used,” Ailam told The Post. On Sept. 17-18, 2024, Israel detonated thousands of explosive-rigged pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah terrorists across Lebanon and Syria in a covert operation that killed dozens, injured thousands and .

Iran’s political leadership, comprised of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, along with newly-installed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei are mere figureheads, and the country is actually ruled by a military quadrumvirate, according to Ailam. 6 , and would possibly be targeted in the next phase of fighting. NurPhoto via Getty Images “The president and foreign minister can’t make decisions. [The military junta] hides behind Mojtaba, but he’s not in charge; he’s a complete puppet,” Ailam said.

The four leaders are Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi, Basij forces commander Hossein Taeb, Iranian Army Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi, and Secretary of Supreme National Security Mohsen Rezaei. Hardliner hit list US and Israeli forces could target these four Iranian leaders. Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ahmad Vahidi , whose troops are responsible for during anti-regime demonstrations in January.

Vahidi is sanctioned by the US and EU for his role in global terrorism and . Basij Forces Commander Hossein Taeb , whose paramilitary group was also responsible for slaughtering protesters in January, was appointed to by Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei with a mandate to expand the Basij’s intelligence-gathering abilities and increase its number of troops to further crackdown on dissent. Iranian Armed Forces Chief Ali Abdollahi , sanctioned by the US Treasury and , he has called America “the big Satan” and threatened that any Gulf Arab country allying with the US would be “engulfed in the flames of war.”

Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Mohsen Rezaei , a founding military leader of the Islamic Republic, has an Interpol Red Notice for his role in the 1994 Buenos Aires Jewish Community Center bombing that killed 85 people. While the four leaders are expecting to be targeted should strikes resume and are likely taking intense precautions to protect themselves from US-Israeli airstrikes, the Jewish State has been plotting surprise attacks against Iran for years, Ailam said.

“Israel will use its imagination, its intelligence and the ability of the Israelis to surprise and turn the table in ways you can not anticipate,” he said. 6 Hossein Taeb now leads the Basij forces which lead in January. TASNIM NEWS/AFP via Getty Images during uprisings in January.

The conventional Iranian Army was not involved in attacks against Iranians, sources said. The four have long thwarted the political leadership’s attempts to strike a deal with the US , believing that closing the Strait of Hormuz gave Iran the upper hand and that Trump would soon buckle under pressure, Ailam said. “In February, Iranians breached their own agreement. Araghchi was caught by surprise — he didn’t understand the logic in breaching the agreement they reached,” Ailam said. 6 Ahmad Vahidi, who leads the IRGC, will likely be targeted, Ailam said.

AP Photo/Vahid Salemi The IRGC reportedly rankled the Iranian foreign minister in February when they announced that they were re-closing the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi announced it was reopening as part of a deal with the US. as economic sanctions and a military blockade imposed by the US continue to . “They’re not on the same page themselves, we see a lot of friction within the regime, different approaches, agreeing then reneging,” Ailam said.

Vice President Vance recently sent a letter to Rezaei in an attempt to restart negotiations between the US and Iran, . 6 Iran is expected to heavily retaliate in the event of renewed strikes. Getty Images Retired US General Jack Keane said that US and Israeli strikes should target leadership, along with destroying the nuclear enterprise, domestic energy infrastructure and ballistic missile and drone facilities.

“The intelligence we have now as a result of six months of collection during the on-again, off-again ceasefire is significant,” Keane said. If Israel is able to deliver on a strategic surprise that wipes out Iran’s remaining leadership, the psychological effect it could have on the regime could be even more devastating than a ground invasion, Ailam said. “The effect is enormous, especially on the psychology of the enemy. Imagine after the attack there’s a conversation somewhere in a bunker with the top echelons of Iran and everybody’s looking to the left and to the right and thinking the guy next to him is a spy,” Ailam said. 6 said that Israel has been devising surprise attacks for years.

. “[The regime’s] interest is survival; they’ll fight harder,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C.-based foreign policy think tank. He said that Iran would seek to generate as much pain as quickly as possible by striking energy and civilian infrastructure in the surrounding Gulf Arab countries — and possibly Israel.

An attack on Israel would open the door to a massive response from the Jewish State, former IDF Major General Yaakov Amidror said. “If the Iranian retaliation will be to destroy or try to destroy energy facilities in the Gulf countries, that would be a good excuse for Israel to destroy the whole energy infrastructure in Iran,” Amidror said. “This is something that cannot be rebuilt in a few years, this will send Iran back 50 years,” he added.

Amidror said that a decapitation strike against Iran’s military leadership was possible if the war resumes, but emphasized that Israel’s top priority would be to neutralize the regime’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

Read the original article on nypost.com (opens in a new tab)
What we found (8)

The New York Post states as its own fact a former Mossad officer's claim that Iran is run by a military junta, and presupposes a nuclear weapons programme in its own voice. A caption promotes that officer to former Mossad chief, which the article's own text contradicts. The Post also gives an unsourced toll of up to 75,000 protesters, calls Iran's government 'the regime' in narration, and lets no Iranian voice speak.

  1. States one side's claim as fact

    Serious

    “four military hard-liners ruling Iran”

    Why this matters
    The Post says in its own voice that four military figures rule Iran.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes it as established that Iran's elected president and other officials hold no power and four commanders run the country.
    The context
    The article itself attributes this to one source: Iran is ruled by a military quadrumvirate 'according to Ailam'. It is his claim, not an established fact.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“the country is actually ruled by a military quadrumvirate, according to Ailam”

    Show it in the article

    “Mohsen Rezaei is part of the military junta currently ruling Iran”

    Why this matters
    The photo caption repeats the junta claim as plain fact and names Rezaei as one of its members.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes the 'military junta' as a known feature of Iran's government.
    The context
    The only basis in the article is Ailam's account of who holds power.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“are mere figureheads, and the country is actually ruled”

    Show it in the article

    “Even among the military junta, cracks are emerging”

    Why this matters
    The Post narrates the internal politics of the 'military junta' in its own voice before it quotes Ailam.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes both the junta and its internal rifts as reported fact.
    The context
    Both come from Ailam, whose quote follows in the next sentence.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“we see a lot of friction within the regime”

    Show it in the article

    Written straight

    According to former Mossad official Oded Ailam, Iran is effectively run by four military commanders, a claim the article does not independently support.

  2. States one side's claim as fact

    Serious

    “for his pursuit of a nuclear weapon”

    Why this matters
    The Post states in its own voice that Vahidi pursues a nuclear weapon.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes it as fact that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme and that Vahidi leads it.
    The context
    This is the sanctioning governments' accusation. The article cites no IAEA finding or other evidence of a weapons programme, and does not mark the claim as anyone's.

    How we know

    • Checked against the whole articleIt never uses the words “IAEA”.

    Show it in the article

    Written straight

    Vahidi is sanctioned by the US and EU, which accuse him of involvement in terrorism and of working toward a nuclear weapon.

  3. Makes a false claim

    Serious

    “Former Mossad Chief Oded Ailam”

    Why this matters
    The caption calls the article's main source a former head of Mossad.
    The impression it gives
    A reader believes the man predicting an Israeli attack once ran Israel's intelligence service, which lends his speculation more weight.
    The context
    The article itself gives his title as former Deputy Head of Global Operations, not chief of Mossad.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“Former Mossad Deputy Head of Global Operations Oded Ailam”

    Show it in the article

    Written straight

    Former Mossad Deputy Head of Global Operations Oded Ailam said Israel has been devising surprise attacks for years.

  4. Headline goes beyond the article

    Minor

    “Israel may be plotting another 'Operation Grim Beeper' style attack: sources”

    Why this matters
    The headline credits 'sources', plural, with word that Israel may be plotting a pager-style attack.
    The impression it gives
    A reader believes several informed sources, presumably current officials, have revealed an Israeli plan.
    The context
    The body rests this claim on one person, a former Mossad officer, who says such an attack 'remains fully on the table' and that he is 'absolutely certain' Israel has unspecified 'cards in the sleeve'. That is his opinion, not reporting of a plan.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“Oded Ailam told The Post that a dramatic”
    • Elsewhere in the article“I'm absolutely certain that Israel has cards in the sleeve”

    Show it in the article

  5. States one side's claim as fact

    Minor

    “the horrendous massacre of as many as 75,000 protesters”

    Why this matters
    The Post gives a death toll of 'as many as 75,000' in its own voice with no source.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes a toll of tens of thousands as an established, sourced figure.
    The context
    The article names no source for the figure, no count, no rights group and no method. It also uses an upper bound, 'as many as', as the measure of the event.

    Show it in the article

    “the slaughter of tens of thousands of Iranian protesters”

    Why this matters
    The caption turns the earlier upper bound into a flat statement of 'tens of thousands' killed.
    The impression it gives
    A reader believes a count of tens of thousands dead is confirmed.
    The context
    The only figure in the article is the unsourced 'as many as 75,000'. The caption drops even that qualifier.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“as many as 75,000 protesters during anti-regime demonstrations”

    Show it in the article

    “Vahidi, Rezaei and Taeb are all responsible for the brutal massacre that saw as many as 75,000 Iranian protesters slaughtered”

    Why this matters
    The Post assigns personal responsibility for the unsourced toll to three named men in its own voice.
    The impression it gives
    A reader believes it is established that these three men are responsible for up to 75,000 deaths.
    The context
    The article gives no source for the toll or for the individual responsibility. It does attach a source, 'sources said', to the next sentence about the army, which shows it can attribute when it chooses to.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“was not involved in attacks against Iranians, sources said”

    Show it in the article

  6. Labels people on one side's word

    Minor

    “severely weakened the terror group”

    Why this matters
    The Post adds its own verdict on Hezbollah in the same breath as the casualty figures.
    The impression it gives
    A reader reads the killing and maiming of thousands as a success against terrorists.
    The context
    The label is the outlet's, with no source attached, and it frames the dead and wounded before the reader learns anything about them.

    Show it in the article

  7. Uses a loaded word

    Minor

    “wreak economic havoc on the regime”

    Why this matters
    The Post calls Iran's government 'the regime' in its own narration.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes Iran's government as illegitimate by the outlet's own judgement.
    The context
    'Regime' is the term Ailam and Ben Taleblu use in their quotes; in narration it is the outlet's verdict.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“[The regime's] interest is survival”

    Show it in the article

    “but the regime has yet to respond”

    Why this matters
    The Post again uses 'the regime' as its plain name for the Iranian government, here in a report on diplomacy.
    The impression it gives
    A reader absorbs the label as neutral description.
    The context
    The sentence reports a diplomatic letter; 'the Iranian government' says the same thing without the verdict.

    Show it in the article

    “known for his belligerence”

    Why this matters
    The Post attaches a character verdict to Abdollahi in its own voice.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes his belligerence as an agreed fact rather than a judgement.
    The context
    The article then quotes his statements, which the reader could judge without the label.

    Show it in the article

  8. One side gets the space

    Minor

    “Any US-Israeli strike will be met with a fierce retaliation from the Iranian regime, which would be fighting for its very survival”

    Why this matters
    The Post states Iran's likely response and motive in its own voice, drawn from a Washington think tank analyst.
    The impression it gives
    A reader believes Iran's position is known and summed up by its opponents' analysts.
    The context
    Every voice on Iran's intentions is a former Israeli official, a retired US general or a US think tank figure. No Iranian official or Iranian source speaks anywhere in the article.

    How we know

    • Elsewhere in the article“said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director”

    Show it in the article

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