Netanyahu's dilemma: Iran escalation risks handing election win to Eisenkot

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fears a military campaign against Iran in the two weeks before the election could undermine Likud's chances of remaining in power, sources familiar with the matter told Maariv on Thursday.Internal Likud assessments have fueled optimism that the rival blocs could finish tied or that Netanyahu's bloc could secure a majority. Netanyahu, however, fears a security escalation could change the electoral picture.A message conveyed from Jerusalem to Washington in recent days indicated that Israel would prefer military action against Iran to begin after the October 27 Knesset election, the sources said.In private discussions, Netanyahu has raised two main considerations against launching a campaign at this stage, according to the sources: the difficulty of postponing the election and the potential toll of Iranian retaliation on Israel's home front.“These are precisely the scenes we cannot afford to see. A country in shelters, missile strikes, destroyed buildings, wounded people and, God forbid, deaths - that is what could lead to a victory for Eisenkot and his partners,” a senior Likud official said, adding that the remarks reflect Netanyahu's position.Likud fears that missile fire, casualties, and prolonged disruption to daily life would shift the public agenda in the final days before the election.According to assessments published in the US, renewed strikes against Iran could prompt the launch of hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. A strike shortly before the election could also raise questions about its motives and timing.Could renewed war with Iran cause elections to be postponed?Netanyahu considers postponing the election because of a security emergency impractical, the sources said.Section 9A of Basic Law: The Knesset requires the support of 80 MKs to pass legislation extending the Knesset's term, along with special circumstances that prevent the election from taking place as scheduled. Likud officials believe they cannot secure the necessary support from the opposition.The possibility of postponing the election also arose in security discussions between Israel and the US. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke with US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Dan Caine about the possibility of renewed fighting within three weeks, Axios reported. Their discussions included the possibility that such a campaign would lead to Israel's election being postponed.Likud's optimism rests on internal assessments, while public polling presents a mixed picture. Polls published in recent days have shown substantial differences between polling firms, with some placing Netanyahu's bloc well short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.Senior Likud officials believe the bloc can improve its position before the election and want to avoid an escalation that could undermine those efforts.Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot recently said he was unaware of any critical development that would justify immediate joint US-Israeli action against Iran. He stressed, however, that he has not had access to the latest intelligence since leaving the war cabinet.The position attributed to Netanyahu in private contradicts briefings and assessments suggesting he favors a strike before the election because he believes another campaign would benefit him politically.Netanyahu, Trump reportedly discuss resuming Iran warNetanyahu and US President Donald Trump have spoken several times over the past two weeks, with the possibility of renewed strikes against Iran coming up in their conversations, according to several sources.The White House denied that the two had discussed resuming the war.Israeli officials believe the denial was intended to distance Israel from the American debate over a strike on Iran and avoid reinforcing claims that Netanyahu influences Trump's decisions. The officials said the White House recognizes that such claims could damage Trump politically at home.The Prime Minister's Office said Netanyahu maintains regular contact with Trump but did not comment on the substance of their conversations.Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain high. Trump said on October 8 that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, but subsequently renewed his threats.At a campaign rally in Alaska over the past day, Trump threatened to deal Iran a heavy blow and said he had grown tired of its conduct.According to a US report, the Pentagon has instructed US Central Command to complete preparations for renewed, extensive military operations against Iran.The operational assessment in Israel, however, is that Trump has yet to make a final decision to attack and that no date has been set for action in the immediate future.Military preparations continue amid reports that Iran is strengthening defenses around strategic facilities and restoring capabilities damaged in the previous campaign.Washington and Tehran are also continuing diplomatic contacts through regional mediators over Iran's nuclear program, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, and a possible agreement to prevent further escalation. The talks have yet to produce a breakthrough.“Trump is Trump. With him, everything can turn around and change very quickly,” the sources said. “We do not control the situation, but the message has certainly been conveyed to him. As far as we are concerned, we would prefer quiet on the security front until October 27.”