Fireworks ahead as Andy Burnham’s smooth start threatens to go off with a bang

6 comments 6 Next REMEMBER, remember the fifth of November. For Andy Burnham , however, it could be a whole month he’d rather forget. Prime Minister Andy Burnham Credit: AFP Chancellor John Healey delivered the Budget last week Credit: Getty Advertisement The Prime Minister has enjoyed a relatively smooth first 100 days in No10, with Labour bouncing back in the polls and his promise of a fresh start striking a chord with voters. And his first Budget this week did little to upset the apple cart.

Sign up for the Politics newsletter Thank you! Email address Please provide a valid email. Your info will be used in accordance with our Privacy Policy You'll now receive top stories, breaking news, and more, straight to your email. Chancellor John Healey handed 20 million households £100 towards their energy bills , extended the cut to electricity VAT and froze fuel duty to give struggling Brits some much-needed “breathing space”. A YouGov poll found 45 per cent thought the Budget was fair, compared with just 20 per cent who disagreed.

But a thumbs-up for fairness is hardly a ringing endorsement of its impact. More than half reckon it will make no real difference to their family’s finances, while nearly three-quarters still believe the economy is in a bad state. And despite offering some welcome relief, the Chancellor left many of the toughest decisions for another day. Even Burnham admitted the Budget was not quite the radical offering he had hoped for, conceding there was less “room for manoeuvre” than expected.

Advertisement Most read in The Sun 'CREEPS' BUSTED Ex- Disney World Mickey Mouse actor among 300 'child predators' busted JUSTICE VOICES Children burned & babies drowned – testimony of women who brought down Nazis REGIME'S THREAT Iran’s Supreme Leader issues warning to US & vows response to any threats ISLAND HELL Inside Philippines’ child sex abuse epidemic as Thomas Markle's 'cache' probed Instead, he is pinning his hopes on an ambitious 10-year plan to transform Britain, promising it will be the real “radical moment” of his premiership.

But November will provide a rather more immediate test of his leadership. For as Bonfire Night approaches, a growing pile of political fireworks is waiting to go off. Immigration , welfare, Brexit and policing are all heading towards crunch moments in the coming weeks. And if that wasn’t enough, Burnham has a diplomatic marathon ahead, with four international summits taking him from the Caribbean to Turkey , Dublin and Brussels. Advertisement It is a daunting diary for a Prime Minister still settling into the job.

First comes immigration. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to unveil the Government’s long-awaited response to plans to make some migrants wait 15 years for permanent residency, potentially as early as next week. The proposals have triggered a furious backlash among Labour MPs, particularly over plans to apply the changes retrospectively to people already living in Britain. And behind the scenes, the whips have been working overtime to establish just how much trouble the Government could be in.

Advertisement In Commons tea rooms, corridors and during votes, MPs have been quietly sounded out about the proposals. One Labour MP says: “They’ve been doing the proper job of whips in estimating what size rebellion there would be if measures weren’t changed.” Opposition is believed to stretch well beyond the 100 MPs who signed a protest letter, with others unable or unwilling to put their names to public complaints. And there are growing expectations the final package will look rather different from what Ms Mahmood originally proposed.

One Government source said: “The PM is tougher on migration that many people think, but on ILR there is a clear direction of travel. Advertisement “There has been so much pitch-rolling for a softening that it will now be more surprising if we actually stick with the current proposals.” Tensions have even reached the Cabinet, with one recent meeting described as “really testy”. It leaves Burnham with an awkward choice between backing his Home Secretary and risking a rebellion, or softening her plans and facing accusations of going weak on immigration.

And it is not the only battle Ms Mahmood could find herself fighting. Her ambitious plans to merge Britain’s 43 police forces into larger regional organisations have also hit a stumbling block. Advertisement The overhaul has run into difficulties over how it fits with Burnham’s determination to hand more power to local leaders. Former Met Police chief Lord Hogan-Howe submitted his review of police force structures in September but ministers have yet to reveal their response.

Insiders insist Ms Mahmood has not been undermined and that the PM simply wanted to take a closer look at the proposals. Nevertheless, the issue is expected to return to the agenda towards the end of November. And with two of her biggest reforms facing potential changes, it could prove a testing month for the Home Secretary too. Advertisement And all this while Burnham juggles a whirlwind of international engagements. First stop is Antigua for the Commonwealth summit, where he is expected to join King Charles and leaders from 56 nations.

Then it’s off to Turkey for the COP31 climate conference, followed by a gathering of around 50 European leaders in Dublin. But while the PM racks up the air miles, the political headaches back home will not be going anywhere. And November has plenty more in store, with two potentially explosive reviews into Britain’s ballooning benefits bill finally due to land. Advertisement Former Cabinet minister Alan Milburn is preparing to deliver his recommendations on tackling the crisis of almost one million young people not in education, employment or training.

Meanwhile, Sir Stephen Timms is due to publish his review into Personal Independence Payment , the disability benefit at the centre of Labour’s damaging rebellion last year. And some Labour MPs fear another showdown could be brewing. One backbencher warned: “I think it’s going to be a lot meatier than people realise.” The review is examining how payments could better reflect the additional costs people face because of their disabilities, rather than relying solely on the current assessment system.

Advertisement While no final recommendations have been made, the MP fears some claimants could lose out. “For many people, there’s no ongoing weekly cost, so you can imagine what that means for potential benefit losses,” they warned. After previous welfare reforms ended in humiliating retreat, it is another potential headache for Burnham. Then comes Brussels and the bigger question of where he wants to take Britain. On November 20, Burnham will meet EU chiefs Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa for a crunch summit.

Advertisement He hopes to secure deals on food exports, energy and youth mobility that could boost the economy by more than £10billion a year by 2040. But having reopened the possibility of Britain eventually rejoining the EU, he has also revived one of the most divisive arguments in British politics . And not everyone in his Cabinet appears to share his enthusiasm. Asked this week whether he wanted Britain back in the EU in his lifetime, Mr Healey quipped: “I’m older than Andy Burnham.

I don’t expect to see that.” Was that a prediction or a polite way of saying “over my dead body”? Advertisement The summit will also help shape Burnham’s longer-term vision for Britain. His much-anticipated 10-year plan, due around the summit, is expected to set out how he intends to revive manufacturing, strengthen public control of essential services and transform the economy. The PM believes the country needs a fundamental change of direction, rather than another collection of short-term fixes.

And his allies argue that giving difficult questions room for proper debate is better than rushing into decisions that unravel before an election. But not everyone in Government is enjoying all the talking. Advertisement There are growing grumblings about the PM’s seemingly endless “open conversations” – with some insiders complaining it puts them in a difficult position. And sooner or later, those conversations will have to end with decisions that won’t please everyone.

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