Will Binyamin Netanyahu win the next Israeli election?
Israel is trapped in a seemingly endless war on three fronts. Its international reputation is at an all-time low. Internally, it has been torn apart by protests over everything from judicial reform to the treatment of the hostages once held in Gaza. The October 7 attacks three years ago on Thursday humiliated the country’s supposedly impregnable security apparatus. Most commented 1 Kemi Badenoch puts cutting ‘immoral’ inheritance tax at core of speech Politics 444 comments 2 Spain’s embattled PM Pedro Sánchez calls snap election Europe 304 comments 3 Brazil election results: Flavio Bolsonaro sets up bitter contest with Lula Latin America 151 comments 4 It’s about time high earners had a tax break Tax 79 comments 5 TalkTalk deal a ‘stitch-up’ of broadband market, says Virgin Media Companies & Markets 97 comments For all of this, many Israelis — and most of Israel’s allies around the world — blame just one man: Binyamin Netanyahu , the prime minister and the country’s dominant political figure for three decades. Top stories 1 Brazil election results: Flavio Bolsonaro sets up bitter contest with Lula Latin America 2 Andrew takes Thames Valley police to court over Jeffrey Epstein investigation Royal family 3 The Times LUXX cartoon: October 5, 2026 LUXX 4 The Devon boys making posh ready meals LUXX 5 14 luxury home fragrances for winter LUXX Even at the official ceremony marking the anniversary on Monday, Netanyahu was heckled by the father of a victim, who shouted: “You did not protect my son.” Netanyahu at a ceremony to mark the October 7 attacks DEBBIE HILL/Reuters Yet for all that, the outcome of Israel’s general election this month is looking as familiar to voters as Netanyahu’s own greying features. Latest opinion polls show his coalition has made a recovery from what many critics thought were stacked odds against him that could finally bring his era to an end, and it is now neck and neck with his opposition. Advertisement At ground zero of October 7, Binyamin Netanyahu draws both derision and devotion Neck and neck is where he has often stood in the weeks leading up to the vote in the many elections he has faced at the head of the ruling Likud party. More often than not, he has managed to retake or stay in power. The election on October 27 has been described by many Israeli and western observers as the most important in the country’s history. Top stories 1 Six thrilling Costa Rica trips with Times Holidays Promoted content Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition have promoted a vision of Israel’s future that is as uncompromising to its friends as to its enemies. They have refused to give ground on most key issues, from its military occupation of most of Gaza to West Bank settlements to the issue that underlies everything for most foreign governments, the future of the so-called two-state solution. Aftermath of strikes by the Israeli military in Gaza City last month MOHAMMED SABER/EPA When Britain’s Labour government announced sanctions against Israeli firms that did business in West Bank settlements, which most countries regard as illegal, the response of Netanyahu was not to try to ward off the criticism but to retaliate. Advertisement Netanyahu now claims that Britain is an “Islamic republic”. His foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, formally announced the closure of the British consulate in Jerusalem. Likud holds on to power thanks to its longstanding alliance with a hard-right ultra-Orthodox religious party, Shas, and a newer one with two nationalist parties, Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) and the Religious Zionist Party. The latter two’s leaders, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, national security and finance ministers respectively, have become for many the most visible faces of the administration, for their aggressive anti-Arab and pro-settler rhetoric. Both men are subject to sanctions and travel bans by Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and a number of European countries. Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich GIL COHEN-MAGEN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES Israeli expats are flocking back. Netanyahu wishes they would stay away A return to power promises more international isolation. Nevertheless, this coalition under the latest opinion polls would garner at least 50 seats in the 120-strong Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Advertisement So would the secular, centre-right, centrist and left-wing parties ranged against them. From the right-wing but anti-Netanyahu Yisrael Beiteinu, through the centrists of Yashar and Yachad, to the Democrats, which comprises the remnants of Israel’s once dominant Labour and other left-wing parties. Yashar is a new party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff who is by no means liberal in a non-Israeli sense — he has downplayed his past support for the two-state solution. But he has, unlike many in government, actively demanded equal rights for Israeli citizens, including its Arab minority. His tough line on security and his personal story — a son and two nephews have died in the Gaza war — won him an apparently commanding opinion poll lead earlier this year, based on support from those in the centre-right who no longer want to see Netanyahu in power. But even so, he would need his potential coalition partners to do well. Yachad’s Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, both former prime ministers, and Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, another former hardliner who has nevertheless suggested he would be open to a peace deal with the Palestinians. Israeli passengers arrive on a Flydubai flight from Tabuk, Saudi Arabia ABIR SULTAN/EPA At present, polls show all these parties, together with the Democrats, garnering about 50-53 seats, the same as Netanyahu’s bloc. The other seats would be taken as now by Arab parties, only one of which, Ra’am, has ever agreed to join an Israeli government, briefly in 2021, and some minor parties, currently unaligned. Advertisement Netanyahu has been described in the past as the progenitor of the school of populist politics that gave birth to President Trump and other rabble-rousing, democratically elected leaders such as Narendra Modi of India, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil and Viktor Orban of Hungary . But he has outlasted at least the latter two, a tribute to his understanding of an electorate which has continuously shown itself to be more concerned about current military posture than future political settlements. Critics of Netanyahu say that he keeps himself in office by making maximalist demands that will never be met in return for peace deals that will never happen. If he insists that Iran hand over all its nuclear material and promise to abandon uranium enrichment, or that Hamas surrender, he can keep Israel in a permanent state of war, of which he is the political beneficiary. Nir Elias/Reuters He has never explained what he sees as the “end state” of Israel’s relations with the Palestinians. He has continuously opposed a two-state solution, while never formally ruling it out as future policy. As such, he has created a political reality, based on Palestinian disempowerment, that few believe his opponents will be able to change. Several hold security positions that are in line with his: two, Eisenkot and Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, have as former generals taken his orders directly. Advertisement But with Israel’s leadership now viewed unfavourably by a majority even in the United States, its one sure backer, it is not just Israel’s many enemies but many of its friends abroad who are hoping for change.