Trump wagers time is on US side, for now, in dealing with Iran
US President Donald Trump has for now shelved negotiations for a nuclear agreement with Iran in favor of an economic strangulation strategy and naval embargo that is accelerating the country’s decline. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday “there’s no need for military action because we’ve weakened them so much,” adding that “victory is ensuring that they never have a nuclear weapon.” In Trump’s calculation, time is on the US side, and he has a point.
Left out here: Leaves out what changes the picture
The article presents the shift away from negotiations and strikes as a calculation from strength, leaving out that it followed Republican losses in the midterms, which Vance blamed on the war, and Netanyahu's likely ousting. Without it, a reader believes the change is driven by Iran's weakness alone.
How we know
- NPR reported“That's a pivot from his threats to carry out quick, intense strikes on Iran in the days before he had to contend with two election setbacks.”What's Trump's strategy now with Iran? To keep things as they are (opens in a new tab)
- NPR reported“Vice President JD Vance blamed Republican losses on the unpopular war with Iran”What's Trump's strategy now with Iran? To keep things as they are (opens in a new tab)
- New York Post reported“The shifting public and private signals come after Trump suggested the US might resume strikes after the midterms”Trump weighs holding off on new Iran strikes unless Tehran provokes US (opens in a new tab)
Iran has never been weaker. Its nuclear facilities, missile and drone bases, and military and naval forces have been bombed repeatedly. Its economy is in freefall, worsened by new sanctions on Iranian commercial banks. Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are at pre-war levels, while Iran’s oil exports are shut down because of the US embargo and naval blockade. Iran’s top leaders know they could be targets in any further US or Israeli attacks.
Iran is resilient, but it is not winning, and it is not stronger than it was before the war. As an adversary, it is resourceful and relentless: it has mastered playing the weak hand, through proxy and drone warfare, calibrating its escalation with the US, and exploiting the vulnerabilities of neighbors who depend on the United States for protection. Iran’s people, meanwhile, are suffering more than ever from political oppression and economic strain.
Read the original article on al-monitor.com (opens in a new tab)