Africa04 October, 20263 min read
Abiy Ahmed Demands Ethiopia Access to the Red Sea Amid Tigray Fighting Risk
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Abiy Ahmed reiterates Ethiopia's demand for direct access to the Red Sea amid Tigray conflict Neighbors at summit warned that Red Sea access rests with littoral states, risking regional conflict
Abiy demands Red Sea
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed insisted that his landlocked country must have access to the Red Sea, even as fighting in the northern Tigray region risks escalating into a regional conflict. Abiy made the demand as he was sworn in for another five-year term in power on Monday, and he told Parliament that Ethiopia would work to secure a port on the Red Sea because access was critical to Ethiopia’s "civilisation". Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Somalia did not object to Ethiopia gaining access to the Red Sea through Somali territory but added that the two countries would need to officially negotiate.
Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry said discussions over the Red Sea must account for the country’s "legitimate interests and enduring connection" to the body of water. Ethiopia’s government also stressed that it is the source of the Blue Nile, which "contributes to nearly 85% of the river Nile’s total flow," while warning that its Red Sea and Nile role should not be conditioned by "coercive measures" or "destabilizing acts."
Horn alliance reshuffle
Egypt’s presidency carried out a deep reorganization of alliances around the Horn of Africa, with Cairo seeking to protect the stability of the Red Sea and control over the waters of the Nile. The Africtelegraph account tied Egypt’s repositioning to a hardened reading of the balance of power with Ethiopia, which it described as the main threat to Egypt’s water and maritime security. The same account said Egypt’s rapprochement with Mogadishu, materialized by arms deliveries and overt political support for Somalia’s territorial integrity, aimed to diplomatically encircle Ethiopia and complicate its project to access the Red Sea.
Ethiopia’s PM framed the demand in terms of give and take, saying, "Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea," as regional relations deteriorated. The Africtelegraph analysis also said the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) was central to the diplomatic offensive, describing Addis Ababa’s announcement of full commissioning without a binding agreement with downstream countries.
Regional risk and next moves
The diplomatic standoff unfolded as four of the five Red Sea littoral states, Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia, met in Egypt’s New Alamein and claimed oversight of the coastline was reserved for bordering states. Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry insisted that Red Sea discussions must reflect the country’s "legitimate interests and enduring connection," while Ethiopia’s government warned that "actions conducted through subsidiary groups or acts of aggression" would not change Ethiopia’s legitimate interests. The Africtelegraph account said Egypt sought to avoid isolation by diversifying partnerships, including with African actors farther afield like Uganda and Kenya, while it reinforced its security presence on the eastern flank of Ethiopia.
The Africtelegraph account also described joint military maneuvers with Somalia and discussions with Djibouti as signaling that no regional reconfiguration would take place at the expense of Cairo’s interests. Al Jazeera reported that Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting opposition forces in northern Tigray, after fighting intensified following the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival.