Crypto27 July, 20262 min read
Bitcoin Holds Above $65,000 as Traders Await Federal Reserve Decision
“as weak CME futures activity and soft spot demand curb a fresh rally”
“traders are watching whether the current range reflects confidence or simply hesitation”
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Bitcoin stays near $65,000 despite AI stock declines. Put/call ratio falls, signaling reduced downside hedging ahead of the Fed.
Bitcoin steadies near $65K
Bitcoin held steady above $65,000 as traders looked ahead to a Federal Reserve decision, with CryptoSlate saying the largest cryptocurrency rose about 1% to $65,155 and Ethereum gained 4% to around $1,964. CryptoSlate tied the move to a pause in US-Iran strikes, saying Washington temporarily halted its strikes on Iran and Tehran said it would suspend attacks as long as the United States did the same. DailyForex said derivatives markets and prediction platforms leaned toward rates staying in the current 3.50% to 3.75% band, even as the probability of a small increase had grown in recent days.
DailyForex also highlighted that Bitcoin’s $65,000 zone had acted as both resistance and support, while bulls tried to defend it and keep an eye on a broader $65,000 to $68,000 band. DailyForex added that a clear move above local highs near $67,000 could open the way toward a cluster between $72,000 and $73,000, while high timeframe support around $60,000 remained a key reference point.
Options show less hedge
As the Fed meeting approached, multiple outlets described a shift in Bitcoin options positioning, with CoinDesk saying the put/call ratio on open interest fell to about 0.52 from about 0.76 at the end of June. CoinDesk reported that calls were gaining market share, with large traders accumulating call options with a $70,000 strike and bullish call spreads. DiarioBitcoin similarly said the put/call open interest ratio fell to 0.52 from 0.76 at the end of June and that the 25-delta skew fell to around 4% for a one-week expiry.
DiarioBitcoin warned that the implied calm for this week contrasted with still elevated hedging for the coming months, adding that lower hedging could leave the market exposed if the central bank surprises investors. CoinDesk said implied volatility was compressed across the curve, at 34.3% for one week versus 40.8% for six months, while markets priced roughly a 15% probability of a rate hike in July.
Fed, FTX payout, and risk
Beyond the Fed, The Currency analytics said the cryptocurrency market was also reacting to an expected FTX creditors’ payout of roughly $900 million, describing it as a big number that could affect market liquidity. The Currency analytics said CME’s FedWatch tool priced a 33% chance of a Fed rate increase and that prediction markets sat around 19%, adding that September was framed as the real moment of truth. The Currency analytics also pointed to scheduled data, saying Thursday is the data day to watch with the United States’ second-quarter GDP and the June personal consumption expenditures reading.
On the crypto-specific side, The Currency analytics said BitMEX settles 35 derivatives in advance, describing early settlements as altering positions and hedging strategies. Invezz said spot Bitcoin ETFs had seen more than $465 million in combined net outflows over two trading sessions, while Bitcoin continued to trade around $65,000 as selling pressure was absorbed by broader market demand.