Crypto24 September, 20263 min read
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Turns Milder as Spot ETFs Launch in January 2024
This article is an automated aggregation of coverage from news outlets. Our editorials offer in-depth analysis curated by the NewsCord team.
Bitcoin fell about 55% from Oct 2025 peak, milder than past bear markets. ETFs and institutional investors are reshaping the bear cycle and upcoming bull cycle.
Milder Bear, New Bull
Bitcoin’s latest bear market drew a smaller decline than prior crashes, with CoinDesk saying Bitcoin fell about 55% in its most recent bear cycle from its October 2025 peak. Bitwise director and head of research Ryan Rasmussen told CoinDesk that spot ETFs, which launched in January 2024, gave financial advisers and other professional investors “a familiar way to add bitcoin to traditional portfolios.” Risk Dimensions chief investment officer Mark Connors told CoinDesk that more institutional participation could contribute to smaller drawdowns than the 70-80% declines seen in previous cycles, and Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli told CoinDesk that bitcoin’s growing size and maturity may better explain why swings are becoming less extreme.
CoinDesk said bitcoin’s bear market may be giving way to bull-market conditions, and it pointed to spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in January 2024 as one reason for the market’s changing behavior. CoinDesk added that bitcoin’s volatility has fallen over time, while its returns have moderated as well, and it framed the shift as a change in how investors buy and sell during rallies and sell-offs.
Who Owns Bitcoin
Ryan Rasmussen contrasted that institutional approach with crypto-focused retail investors, noting that Rasmussen described a professional investor allocating around 2% of a portfolio to bitcoin while crypto-focused retail investors can have 20%, 30%, or more tied to the asset. Rasmussen said rebalancing can soften sell-offs, with an adviser targeting a 2% bitcoin allocation may buy after a steep decline and may sell some if bitcoin surges and reaches 5% of the portfolio. Mark Connors said more institutional investors could mean “smaller blow-off tops due to rebalancing,” while the same behavior can create sellers when prices soar.
Jim Ferraioli pushed back on the idea that ETFs and institutions alone drive the change, saying, “I don't know if I would necessarily agree with that take,” and it attributed his explanation to bitcoin’s size and market capitalization. CoinDesk then quoted Jim Ferraioli pushing back on the idea that ETFs and institutions alone drive the change, saying, “I don't know if I would necessarily agree with that take,” and it attributed his explanation to bitcoin’s size and market capitalization.
Volatility, Flows, and Models
Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024 pulled in roughly $60 billion in net inflows through October 2025, and less than $10 billion flowed back out when the drawdown hit.
A September 2026 report from Bitwise surveyed 15 major institutions and found that not a single one reduced its crypto allocation during the market drop, with several increasing their Bitcoin positions while prices were falling.
Implied vol dropped from around 70% in 2025 to approximately 45%, and institutions selling covered calls against their Bitcoin holdings to generate yield drove that move.
On Sept. 23, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle pattern is weakening, and it described the current bear market as “much more gradual” than the previous three bear markets.
Bloomingbit reported a price snapshot, saying Bitcoin was trading at $84,411 on Binance’s USDT market as of 3:56 a.m. on Sept. 24 and down 2.42% from a day earlier.