Bubblemaps Flags Polymarket Wallet Cluster With $2.4 Million Profits on U.S.-Iran Military Bets

A blockchain analytics investigation by Bubblemaps identified a cluster of nine interconnected Polymarket wallets that collectively earned about $2.4 million with a 98% win rate on contracts tied to U.S. military actions involving Iran.

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The accounts were created days before the initial U.S. bombing of Iran in late February and, according to the investigation, they accurately predicted the timing of numerous U.S. strikes against Iran, the ouster of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the establishment of a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States.

CBS News

Bubblemaps said the wallets made only minimal losing trades, described as just a few hundred dollars, which it said were intentional losses to mislead investigators.

The findings were framed as part of a broader pattern of insider trading concerns around decentralized prediction markets such as Polymarket, with the investigation highlighting how the on-chain trail can surface suspicious timing and outcomes.

Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, told Decrypt that only a small circumstantial clue ties the accounts in question to the United States, pointing to the fact that one suspicious account bore the name "whopperlover."

Vaiman also said, "Beyond the ridiculous names... there is no evidence that these users are American," while adding that the accounts mainly focused on U.S. military markets related to Iran.

Cointelegraph

In a separate CBS News segment, Rob Schwartz described the alleged conduct as a new kind of insider trading, saying, "This is a new kind of insider trading."

CBS News reported that the Justice Department alleges Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified intelligence to place bets tied to the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and that the 38-year-old Army master sergeant pleaded not guilty.

The same CBS News reporting said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch and her team at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found military bets had a 52% success rate versus sports at 7%, which she described as "systemic insider-trading."

Bubblemaps told Decrypt that the gains from the nine-wallet cluster were transferred to Bybit, a Dubai-based centralized cryptocurrency exchange, and that the funds also passed through other exchanges like Binance and HTX.

“Source: Bubblemaps While the data platform doesn’t have definitive proof that the accounts belonged to insiders, the onchain trail is “symptomatic of someone with an unfair informational advantage,” Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of Bubblemaps, told Cointelegraph”

Cointelegraph

The investigation described how the accounts may have been routed through those platforms via a third-party service, and it said the pattern of near-perfect success and timing raised questions about whether participants had an unfair informational advantage.

Cointelegraph quoted Vaiman saying, "We cannot say with certainty that this was an attempt to hide, but it is suspicious that funds were routed through CEXs and third-party services before funding new Polymarket accounts, effectively covering their tracks."

On the policy side, Cointelegraph said US Democratic Party Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act on March 10 to ban federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.

Cointelegraph also said California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order in late March to curb public servants from insider trading on prediction markets tied to political or economic events they can influence.