Full story
Risk-reward debate returns
A French-language market chronicle in Allnews argues that, with the price of bitcoin above USD 30'000, the risk-reward ratio for crypto is favorable, citing a bitcoin average daily return of 0,079% versus 0,050% for the Nasdaq.
“le bitcoin offre un rendement moyen journalier de 0,079% contre 0,050% pour le Nasdaq”
The same Allnews piece says bitcoin’s maximum recorded loss in one day is -78,6% while ether’s is -43,2% and the Nasdaq’s is -12,3%, and it frames crypto volatility as four to five times higher than the Nasdaq.
Allnews also puts the Sharpe ratio at 0,079 for bitcoin and 0,072 for ether compared with 0,050 for the Nasdaq, concluding that for one unit of risk, bitcoin offers a higher average daily return.
It further claims that annualizing performance raises the gap because crypto trades 7 days on 7, describing a “year crypto” of 365 days versus about 250 days for traditional assets.
The chronicle cautions that “Les performances passées ne garantissent pas les résultats futurs,” while stating its analysis covers the period from 2010 to today, except for ether whose quotation began in 2015.
On-chain signals and ETF flows
Multiple outlets tie a potential market bottom to Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio, with CryptoQuant reporting that the metric has dropped to -0.35, a 43-month low, and that it has historically appeared near major market bottoms.
Crypto News says U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in inflows, ending a 10-day outflow streak as Bitcoin rebounded, while Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that reduced leverage could signal the final stage of Bitcoin’s correction before a potential fall rally.
Cointelegraph adds that Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the STRC incident “squeezed out excess leverage” and likely moved the market one step closer to a bottom.
Bitget, meanwhile, reports that Bitcoin is trading at $62,502, up 1.26% over the past 24 hours, with daily trading volume at $25.47 billion and market capitalization at $1.25 trillion, and it points to three rarely-seen bullish signals on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart.
Bitget also says CryptoQuant cautioned that the realized profit and loss ratio should not be interpreted as definitive confirmation of a market reversal, even as it notes the signal has historically coincided with long-term price bottoms.
Treasury moves and what’s next
As the debate over bottoms plays out, BitMine Immersion Technologies added around $43 million in Ethereum last week by buying 27,084 ETH, lifting its holdings above 5.7 million ETH and moving closer to a 5% target.
“Chairman Thomas "Tom" Lee attributed recent crypto price weakness to quarter-end “window dressing””
CoinDesk reports that Bitmine’s chairman Thomas “Tom” Lee attributed recent crypto price weakness to quarter-end “window dressing,” saying investors were cutting their losses as the market entered the second half of the year.
TradingView says Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) suspended its weekly bitcoin purchases for the first time since March 2025, preserving its 762,099 BTC, while also noting the company holds 3.6% of the total bitcoin supply.
The same TradingView piece says Strategy’s expanded ATM programs foresee $84 billion in fundraising by 2027, while reserves cover only eight months of dividends, and it frames the pause as depending on Bitcoin’s price movement and the company’s ability to raise funds.
Together, the sources portray a market where institutional flows, on-chain loss metrics, and corporate treasury decisions are all being watched for signs that the correction is ending, even as Allnews stresses that past performance does not guarantee future results.
