Cantor Fitzgerald Says Coinbase And Robinhood Growth Hinges On Prediction Markets

Coinbase and Robinhood are leaning into prediction markets as a “new secret weapon” for growth, with Cantor Fitzgerald analysts arguing investors are shifting attention away from near-term crypto trading weakness and toward product roadmaps.

“Prediction markets are the new secret weapon for Coinbase and Robinhood growth Cantor Fitzgerald analysts said the market is treating recent trading slumps as old news, shifting focus instead toward prediction markets and new product launches to drive the next leg of growth for Coinbase and Robinhood”

@coindesk

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal kept an “overweight” rating on both stocks and raised price targets, saying the market is treating “recent trading slumps as old news” and focusing instead on “forward-looking demand trends and the product roadmap,” including “newer offerings such as prediction markets.”

@coindesk

The coindesk report says both companies are expected to report softer results for the first quarter of 2026 after a pullback in crypto prices and trading activity, while still betting that “prediction markets, along with initiatives like tokenization and private market access, will help diversify revenue beyond volatile crypto trading cycles.”

Cantor Fitzgerald’s estimates in the coindesk article put Coinbase’s consumer and institutional trading volumes at “$35 billion and $167 billion,” both below Wall Street expectations, and the firm also projects exchange revenue below consensus.

The same report ties the stock momentum to sentiment and macro conditions, noting that “Coinbase shares are up about 18% quarter-to-date” and that Robinhood has “climbed roughly 40% in April from late-March lows.”

In parallel, the Digital Today article frames the shift as investors focusing on future demand rather than first-quarter 2026 results, citing that “bitcoin and ether prices fell about 23 percent and 29 percent, respectively,” during the first quarter.

The finance narrative is therefore built around a contrast: weak trading conditions in the near term versus a strategic push into prediction markets and other new product lines.

The bullish case for prediction markets is presented alongside a detailed accounting of why the core crypto trading engine may be under pressure.

The coindesk article says Cantor expects a “sequential decline in trading volumes due to softer market conditions,” and also anticipates “a hit to net interest revenue from lower rates.”

Bitcoin World

It adds that the business model has some cushion because “Higher volatility can lift trading margins,” and Cantor expects “stronger yields in equities and options to partly offset weaker activity.”

But it also warns that “crypto revenue quality may come under pressure,” pointing to the platform’s “tiered pricing structure … earns lower yields on large active traders … and higher yields on marginal traders,” with the latter group pulling back during volatility.

Digital Today provides additional context for the trading slump by reporting that Coinbase’s trading volume fell to “about $54 billion in March from about $66 billion in January,” based on external tallies.

That same article notes that “Coinbase and Robinhood have generally weak outlooks for first-quarter results,” and it ties the market’s attention shift to the idea that quarterly prints are becoming “backward-looking indicators.”

Bloomingbit similarly describes the near-term earnings momentum as soft while emphasizing that investors are focused on future growth areas such as prediction markets, stating that “Revenue may be soft in the short term, but prediction markets and tokenization could help diversify revenue streams.”

Regulatory uncertainty is a central thread running through the prediction-market growth story, with the New York Attorney General’s office taking legal action that frames the products as gambling.

“Summary - Coinbase and Robinhood are focusing on prediction markets and product expansion as future growth drivers, the report said”

bloomingbit

The coindesk report says that “Later on Tuesday, the New York Attorney General's office filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and fellow crypto exchange Gemini over their prediction market offerings,” alleging “that the products were actually gambling products and therefore in violation of state regulations.”

It adds that “Whether prediction markets — specifically, sports-related prediction markets — are gambling products are not is currently a topic of debate in both state and federal courts,” and it lays out the competing regulatory characterizations.

The coindesk article states that “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has argued that prediction markets are swaps, and therefore properly regulated by that agency at the federal level,” while “States have argued that at least the sports-related contracts are not swaps, and should be licensed and overseen by state regulators.”

It further says “This question is likely to end up before the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Digital Today provides a date-specific version of the same legal move, stating that “The New York State Attorney General's Office filed a lawsuit on April 21 against Coinbase and Gemini,” and it repeats the core allegation that the prediction market products “amount to gambling products and violate state rules.”

Bloomingbit also points to the same lawsuit and describes it as part of “Regulatory uncertainty,” while Bitcoin World emphasizes the broader legal and operational considerations by describing prediction markets as “a complex legal landscape” where “Different jurisdictions treat these markets as gambling, financial instruments, or information markets.”

Beyond the prediction-market product itself, the sources describe a broader set of catalysts that investors are monitoring, including regulatory developments and other initiatives like tokenization and private market access.

The coindesk article says, “For Coinbase, investors are watching regulatory developments and new business lines,” and it adds that the company’s prediction markets offering “launched this year” “continues to attract meaningful interest,” according to El-Assal.

CoinDesk

It also says Robinhood is “leaning into prediction markets alongside other initiatives such as tokenization and private market access,” and that Cantor expects these efforts, plus regulatory changes like “updates to pattern day trading rules,” could help drive future growth.

Digital Today similarly states that “Interest continues in Coinbase's prediction market product launched this year,” and it ties Robinhood’s strategy to “tokenisation and broader access to private markets alongside prediction markets.”

Bloomingbit reinforces the same multi-pronged approach by stating that “Coinbase and Robinhood are focusing on prediction markets and product expansion as future growth drivers,” and it reiterates that Cantor Fitzgerald maintained “Overweight” ratings and raised price targets to “$250 and $110.”

Bitcoin World, while more expansive, also frames prediction markets as part of a shift beyond traditional trading, describing them as “a distinct category within financial technology” where “users to trade contracts based on event outcomes.”

The coindesk article further connects the stock reaction to macro sentiment, saying that “Both stocks have rallied in recent weeks,” with Coinbase up “about 18% quarter-to-date” and Robinhood up “roughly 40% in April,” helped by “improving risk sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions.”

Although the core narrative is consistent—prediction markets as a growth engine amid weak crypto trading—the sources differ in emphasis, tone, and the way they contextualize the same underlying claims.

Coindesk leads with the idea that prediction markets are a “new secret weapon” and ties the thesis directly to Cantor Fitzgerald’s rating actions, including El-Assal’s “overweight” stance and raised price targets to “$250” for Coinbase and “$110” for Robinhood.

Whalesbook

Digital Today foregrounds the macro and market-data context by specifying that “During the first quarter, bitcoin and ether prices fell about 23 percent and 29 percent,” and it adds the Coinbase trading volume comparison of “about $54 billion in March from about $66 billion in January.”

Bloomingbit, while also attributing the analysis to Cantor Fitzgerald and El-Assal, presents a more structured “Forecast Trend Report” framing and repeats that “Revenue may be soft in the short term” while prediction markets and tokenization “could help diversify revenue streams.”

Bitcoin World, in contrast, expands into a general explanation of prediction markets as event-based contracts and probability pricing, describing them as “a distinct category within financial technology” and stating that “These platforms allow users to trade contracts based on event outcomes.”

The regulatory dispute is also framed differently: coindesk emphasizes the path to the “U.S. Supreme Court,” while Digital Today anchors the lawsuit to “April 21” and states that the New York State Attorney General’s Office filed it against “Coinbase and Gemini.”

Meanwhile, the coindesk article also connects the market reaction to a separate macro news item, saying that “The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave back their early morning gains alongside BTC” as markets digested “the Fed Chair nominee's Senate confirmation hearing” and “report of stalled Iran talks,” which is not present in the other sources.

The stakes for Coinbase and Robinhood in this reporting are tied to whether prediction markets can become a meaningful revenue stream without triggering a regulatory outcome that forces them to change course.

The coindesk article says Cantor’s broader view is that while “current trading trends remain tied to crypto price cycles,” the “next phase of growth will depend more on product expansion and new use cases,” explicitly naming prediction markets as part of that shift.

It also notes that the companies are betting that prediction markets, tokenization, and private market access will “help diversify revenue beyond volatile crypto trading cycles,” which implies that a regulatory setback could directly threaten the diversification plan.

At the same time, the sources describe a market that is already reacting positively to the product narrative, with coindesk stating that “Both stocks have rallied in recent weeks,” including Coinbase’s “about 18% quarter-to-date” gain and Robinhood’s “roughly 40% in April from late-March lows.”

Digital Today adds that “Recent gains in both companies' share prices despite weak results underscore that,” reinforcing that investors are pricing in the forward-looking product roadmap even as first-quarter conditions deteriorate.

The legal timeline is a key risk channel: coindesk says the dispute over whether sports-related prediction markets are gambling products or swaps “is currently a topic of debate in both state and federal courts,” and it predicts the question could reach “the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Bitcoin World frames the regulatory complexity as a defining operational constraint by describing a “complex legal landscape” where “Different jurisdictions treat these markets as gambling, financial instruments, or information markets.”