China23 July, 20262 min read
China Launches Two-Day Live-Fire Drills in Taiwan Strait Near Fujian’s Dongshan Island
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China launches two-day live-fire drills around Dongshan Island off Fujian. Drills announced after Rubio–Wang Yi talks.
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“The exercises appear to have influenced prediction markets related to the possibility of a military clash or invasion.”
“maintaining constant military pressure on the island without crossing the threshold of open warfare.”
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Live-fire drills begin
China began a two-day live-fire military exercise in designated areas of the Taiwan Strait off the coast of Fujian Province, with the drills scheduled to run daily from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. local time through Thursday. The exercise is being conducted near Dongshan Island, close to the border with Guangdong Province, and Chinese maritime authorities said navigation has been restricted in the exercise zones during the operation.
The announcement came shortly after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during which Taiwan was among the issues discussed. Beijing continues to reaffirm its One China principle, under which it regards Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory, and opposes foreign military support and arms sales to the island.
Rubio, Wang, and signals
The drills followed talks between Rubio and Wang on a range of issues, including democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. In Manila, Rubio warned against attempts to disrupt trade flows in the Taiwan Strait and said Chinese military maneuvers around the island "run contrary to the spirit of…strategic stability," referring to President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's Beijing summit in May.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises as "the Chinese government's repeated provocations and undermining of regional security and stability" and said the drills pose a danger to vessels and flights operating in the area. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jiang declined to comment, telling reporters Thursday "the relevant authorities have already released information."
Trade lane at risk
Newsweek framed the stakes around the Taiwan Strait as a critical trade lane, warning that a Chinese blockade or military offensive against Taiwan that obstructs the strait would significantly disrupt shipping to the U.S. key allies in the region. It reported that Japan, South Korea and the Philippines collectively shipped $755 billion worth of goods through the Taiwan Strait in 2024, compared with $474 billion through the Malacca Strait between Indonesia and Malaysia and Singapore.
The same report said nearly $1.3 trillion of China’s trade transited the Taiwan Strait in 2024, including 58 percent of its seaborne imports and 33 percent of its total imports. In parallel, the StratNews Global account said the exercises come just a day after Rubio and Wang met on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Manila, where they discussed Taiwan, and said the drills underscore Beijing’s continued military pressure on Taiwan amid ongoing tensions with the United States.