USAupdated 1h ago3 min read
Democrats Push For Senate Majority as Kalshi Prices 66% Chance and Thune Predicts GOP Wins
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Markets show Democrats likely to win Senate majority, with Kalshi odds rising. Thune forecasts Republicans will outperform polls and keep a narrow Senate edge.
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Odds, polls, and money
Democrats are pushing for a Senate majority as CNN says it finds Democrats with a 10-point advantage over Republicans nationwide in voters’ choice in their own congressional district, and it puts President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 33% among US adults. CNN also says more than $300 million is pouring into races from both sides for the 10 seats it lists as most likely to flip in November, with Kansas and New Hampshire switching spots on that list. Kalshi traders are pricing Democrats at a 66% chance of winning the Senate as of Wednesday morning, and the Kalshi American Power Index shows Democrats at +4.9.
NewsNation’s election partner Decision Desk HQ projects Democrats will take 51 seats in the Senate, giving Democrats a 56% chance of winning control, while it projects 236 House seats. Fox News reports Senate Majority Leader John Thune predicts Republicans will outperform the polls and retain their narrow Senate majority, which Fox News says is 53-to-47.
Battleground states and claims
CNN says Ohio is one of its top flip targets, where it reports a CNN Poll of Polls average shows Democrat Sherrod Brown with a narrow advantage over Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 49% to 44%.
CNN also says Trump is deeply underwater in Ohio with only 36% of likely voters approving of his performance, and it adds that Trump is holding two events in Ohio and another in neighboring Kentucky this month.
Fox News says Thune believes polling under-reflects the Republican vote, and Thune told Fox News Digital, "I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote."
France 24 says Democrats need to win four additional seats to secure a majority, and it states the Senate currently consists of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who typically vote with the Democrats.
Kalshi News says Cook Political Report identifies Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as "toss-ups" as of its October 20 update.
What control would mean
Kalshi News says Democrats will need to earn a net gain of at least four seats because Republicans hold a 53-47 lead in the chamber, and it says odds for Democrats to win the Senate reach 66% as of Wednesday morning.
NewsNation says DDHQ rates four Senate races as toss-ups as of Oct. 21, naming Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas, and it says Republicans are looking to hold onto their 53-47 Senate majority while eyeing a potential pickup in Michigan.
CNN says its ranking is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, and it describes the list as a snapshot that can shift as the midterm election season enters its final days.
Federal News Network says Democrats are relatively assured of taking control of the House of Representatives and that Senate control would let them push back against President Trump as he tries to implement his agenda over the final two years of his time in the Oval Office.
Kalshi News adds that if Democrats win all 13 of the Cook "solid, likely, or lean" races, they would need to win just four of the seven "toss-up" races identified by the report to get to 51 seats.