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Kalshi And Nate Silver Forecast Democrats Ahead In U.S. Midterms On November 3
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5 Other4 Western Mainstream1 African3 Other source typesThis article is an automated aggregation of coverage from news outlets. Our editorials offer in-depth analysis curated by the NewsCord team.
Democrats have a 70% chance to sweep Congress per Kalshi's market contract. The second most likely outcome is a Democratic House with a Republican Senate (27%).
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13 outlets told this the same way.
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Midterms, markets, and odds
The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 are set to renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats, with 36 state governorships also up for election.
Kalshi’s event contract put the likelihood of Democrats winning both the House and the Senate at 70%, while it priced a split outcome at 27% and a Republican sweep at 6%.
Nate Silver updated his midterm forecast to show Democrats leading by 9.1 percentage points on the generic ballot, 52.4% to 43.3%.
Deutsche Bank calculated that the S&P 500 posted gains in the fourth quarter in 21 of the last 23 midterm years, with an average rise of 7%.
Redpoint Partners argued that South Korean stocks would depend less on the election result itself than on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, Brent crude, and foreign fund flows, with a break back above 5.1% flagged as a trigger for a defensive stance.
Wall Street variables
Bloomberg Línea framed the elections as a test of whether Democrats can seize control of Congress and limit Donald Trump’s economic agenda, with the vote on November 3 defining the political margin for fiscal measures, federal budget negotiations, and deregulation.
Deutsche Bank warned that “the legislative agenda will continue to face White House restrictions, whichever the outcome of the midterm elections.”
Decision Desk HQ assigned on October 29 an 80% probability of Democrats taking the House and a 60% probability of winning a Senate majority, while it placed an 58% chance of a Democratic victory in both chambers.
Redpoint Partners said the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield had fallen from 5.31% on Oct. 5 to 4.93% on Nov. 2, and it said a renewed break above 5.1% would call for reducing exposure to risk assets.
Redpoint Partners also warned that continued weekly net selling of more than 1 trillion won could weigh on South Korean stocks regardless of the election outcome.
If Democrats win, what next
France 24 reported that Trump’s top advisers had been working on a scenario in which a White House would face Democratic majorities and govern through executive orders, decrees, and vetoes. France 24 said Reuters reported that the Administration had been studying since April how to keep much of the presidential agenda moving forward without depending on Congress’s approval. France 24 quoted Trump acknowledging that if the Republicans lose control of Congress, he could become the “veto man,” and it said he explained that his idea would be to use that power for “one or two months” before sitting down to negotiate with the Democrats.
Goldman Sachs said that if Democrats take control of the House, key fiscal deadlines such as the expiration of spending authority on December 11 and the 2027 debt ceiling would become major points of legislative contention. The South African Institute of International Affairs’ Professor Elizabeth Sidiropoulos warned that the possibility of a losing party refusing to accept election results could no longer be dismissed, and she said a Democratic-controlled House could provide some pushback against Trump’s administration while much of U.S. foreign policy remains determined by the White House.