Israeli Politicsupdated 25m ago2 min read
Israeli Exit Polls Show Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot Deadlocked, Neither Near 61 Seats
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Netanyahu bloc largest party, but short of 61-seat majority. Eisenkot-led bloc near parity, neither side can form government.
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Deadlock after Arab surge
Israeli exit polls left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fighting for his political life after a surge among Arab voters created a deadlock between Netanyahu’s allies and the rival bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, with neither side close to the 61 seats needed to clinch power.
AFR said neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot’s bloc came close to winning the 61 seats needed to form a government, even as Israeli voters turned out in record numbers on Tuesday to pass judgement on divisive Netanyahu.
AP said exit polls released Tuesday suggested Netanyahu’s political bloc and its main rival were short of a parliamentary majority, setting up weeks of negotiations among political parties to form a governing coalition.
AP also framed the election as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership after the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack and the wars that followed, while AFR described Netanyahu as facing a political life-or-death moment as Arab voters turned the outcome into a kingmaker contest.
Netanyahu and Eisenkot vows
Netanyahu told supporters that “We must establish a strong, right-wing, nationalist government,” and he rejected a partnership with Arab parties, saying “We must not endanger Israel and establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties.” Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use security for politics, telling supporters: “Netanyahu: don't dare use Israel's security for your political needs,” and he added that commanders and security leaders must remember Netanyahu would be heading a caretaker government.
AP described Netanyahu as upbeat at an appearance early Wednesday, positioning himself to remain prime minister and dismissing the idea of a partnership with Arab parties as treasonous. Axios said the deadlock was the most likely outcome, with Netanyahu weakened but neither side having a clear path to forming a coalition government, and it projected Arab parties poised to win 18 to 19 seats.
Coalition arithmetic and next vote
Exit polls suggested Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s bloc were neck and neck at about 51 seats each, leaving both short of the 61-seat threshold in the 120-seat Knesset, while Arab parties were projected to win about 18 seats. BBC said two revised exit polls showed Netanyahu’s right-wing camp and Eisenkot’s bloc tied at 51 seats, and it said the winning bloc needs at least 61 seats to form a majority government.
Axios projected Netanyahu’s Likud party at 27 seats versus 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party, while it said Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s bloc were each short of a majority and could leave Israel in a state of limbo. AFR said the deadlock left Arab voters to play kingmaker, and it described Netanyahu as fighting for his political life as the outcome hinged on whether disparate parties were willing to form a coalition.