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Category shifts, uncertain turn
Hurricane Lowell strengthened to a Category 4 storm on Friday with winds of 150 mph, and forecasters warned it could reach Category 5 intensity later Friday or early Saturday with winds of 160 mph.
“Lowell strengthened to a Category 4 storm on Friday, with winds of 150 mph.”
As of 2 p.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 4, the center of Lowell was located about 575 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and was moving to the west at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
The National Hurricane Center forecast track called for a sharp right turn to the north or north-northeast over the weekend, with the center expected to be within 200 miles west of Kauai.
A forecast from the hurricane center early the morning of Sept. 4 Hawaii time said Lowell is expected to be "near major hurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands."
Forecasters said it could move near or just west of the westernmost main islands on Sept. 7, while also warning that "there is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week."
Models differ, preparations begin
Local reporting described Lowell as poised to strengthen and turn toward Hawaii, with the San Francisco Chronicle saying it was about 600 miles south of Lihue and moving west at 8 mph as of 9 a.m. PDT.
The Chronicle said forecast models agreed Lowell would make the turn but differed on how close the storm’s core would get, and it noted the latest models had trended slightly west with the center taking the storm 180 miles west of Kauai.
In Honolulu, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Lowell remained a Category 3 storm as of 5 a.m., packing maximum sustained winds near 125 mph while moving west roughly 600 miles south of Lihue and 570 miles south-southwest of Honolulu.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu warned that "Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes," while the hurricane center said a Category 3 storm would bring "devastating damage" including major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends.
Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said Oahu crews were ready to go to Kauai to help with whatever is needed, and National Weather Service Senior Meteorologist Genki Kino said the sharp northward turns are "typically where we see the largest forecast errors."
Surf, rain, and emergency stakes
As Lowell nears the islands, forecasters said rainfall and coastal impacts could be significant, with the Honolulu Star-Advertiser citing initial storm total rainfall estimates ranging from 3 to 6 inches for Kauai and the Big Island and localized areas seeing more than 10 inches.
“The rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain”
That same report said Maui could receive 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals up to 8 inches, while other islands could see 1 to 2 inches, and it warned the rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
The Honolulu Star-Advertiser also reported a high surf advisory remained in effect until 6 a.m. Saturday for south and east shores across all islands, with wave heights forecast to reach 7 to 10 feet along eastern exposures and 8 to 12 feet along southern exposures.
In parallel, the Garden Island said KEMA was monitoring Lowell and Karina and quoted Mayor Derek S.K. Kawakami urging residents to prepare while the storm was forecasted to remain south of the state for the next few days.
Governor Josh Green said, "We have to be prepared," after declaring a state of emergency to allow counties to access funds and respond more quickly, and he said on social media, "We want everyone to have 14 days of provisions; we want you to have stored water."