Israeli Politicsupdated 1h ago3 min read
Archive photoIsraeli Channel 12 Poll Shows Gadi Eizenkot Camp 52 Seats, Netanyahu Camp 50, Arab Parties 14
“The overall polling average put the bloc led by Netanyahu ahead, with 54 seats, while the opposition would get 50 seats”
“Yet beneath those conflicting headlines lies one important point of agreement: The election is exceptionally difficult to predict”
Photo: Shlomo Spitzer (שלמה שפיצר), CC BY 2.5 · Cropped for layout
This article is an automated aggregation of coverage from news outlets. Our editorials offer in-depth analysis curated by the NewsCord team.
Channel 12 poll: Eisenkot camp 52, Netanyahu camp 50, Arab parties 14. Neither bloc reaches 61 seats for majority.
Polls split, no majority
Israeli Channel 12’s poll projected 52 seats for the Eisenkot camp, 50 seats for the Netanyahu camp, and 14 seats for Arab parties. The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eizenkot would obtain 54 seats in the Israeli elections next Tuesday, compared to 50 for the coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while the Knesset has 120 seats and requires 61 to reach an absolute majority. Neither bloc alone would reach that figure, while parties and lists outside both would total 16 seats, according to the average polls from Israeli television channels 11, 12, and 13.
The Arab parties would be decisive for Eizenkot’s ability to reach 61 seats, because his bloc would need at least seven additional deputies. Israeli law prohibits publishing polls before the elections scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, so it will not be known until after the elections whether a military escalation announced this Friday after an attack near Hebron influenced voting preferences.
Eisenkot, Netanyahu, Arab parties
Israel National News said a final Channel 12 News election poll showed Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party wins 23 seats, unchanged from the previous survey, while Netanyahu’s Likud gains two seats to reach 21. The Channel 12 poll projected the anti-Netanyahu bloc reaching 70 seats, compared to 50 for the coalition parties, and it said a majority of 61 seats is needed to form a coalition. 44% of respondents believe Eisenkot is better suited to serve as prime minister, compared to 38% who prefer Netanyahu, and it said the gap now stands at just six percentage points.
Haaretz said the final polls before Election Day showed Eisenkot’s bloc holding a lead of two to six Knesset seats over Netanyahu’s governing coalition, and it said none of the polls projected either bloc winning the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Arab-majority parties received 14 to 16 seats in the polls, and it noted that disqualifications last month were overturned by the Supreme Court.
Deadlock and what happens next
The Times of Israel said final polls published Friday before Israel’s national election on Tuesday showed continued gridlock, with neither the current coalition nor the so-called change bloc predicted to be able to form a government following the vote. A poll from Channel 13 predicted the “change bloc” of parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive 54 seats, while the parties loyal to the premier receive 50 seats, and it said both fall short of the 61 necessary to form a government. The Arab parties will receive 16 seats, and it said Channel 13 projected Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar will get 22 seats, Netanyahu’s Likud will get 19, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad will get 14, and the Democrats will receive 10.
If neither is able to form a governing coalition, repeat elections will be called, to be held in early 2027, with Netanyahu remaining in charge as a caretaker premier. The final distribution will depend on which parties clear the 3.25% threshold of valid votes needed to enter the Knesset, and it said the outcome of the small parties near that threshold could shift the parliamentary balance.