Latvia Opens Polls Amid Russia Threat, Cost-of-Living Squeeze, Drone Incursions

Election Under Russia Shadow

Latvia opened polls on Saturday for its 11th parliamentary election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, with the vote taking place against perceived security threats from Russia and a nationwide cost-of-living squeeze. Andris Kulbergs, who came to power in May after his predecessor resigned due to a backlash from stray drone incursions from Ukraine, led the United List alliance into the election as polls showed it at about 20 percent. Latvia’s election also drew attention to security spending, with Latvia allocating nearly 5 percent of its gross domestic product to defence and with four German Eurofighter jets deployed to protect Latvian airspace during the election.

The campaign framed Russia as the dominant external risk, with the results not expected to change Latvia’s pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. The election field included 14 electoral lists, and polls indicated only seven were likely to enter parliament while the rest were expected to fail to meet the minimum 5 percent vote threshold.

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SourcesAl JazeeraDW

Parties Clash Over Moscow

Latvia’s political debate split over how to respond to Russia, with the populist Sovereign Power party polling at about 9 percent and arguing that money spent supporting Kyiv would be better spent at home. Kalpona Akter citations_placeholder

SourcesAl JazeeraThe Straits Times

What’s at Stake Next

Latvia’s next government will be shaped by coalition negotiations after the vote, with partial results expected on Saturday evening and preliminary official results due on Sunday. The election’s outcome was presented as a test of Latvia’s stance toward Russia, with security and economic issues tied to distancing from Russia described as the central points of contention. Latvia’s Ministry of Defence budget planning put defence spending at about €2.16 billion on defence in 2026, equivalent to approximately 4.7 per cent of GDP under its updated calculation, as Riga moved toward a target of 5 per cent.

The campaign also highlighted how Russian-speaking voters could influence the ballot, with the ethnic Russian minority described as making up roughly one in four Latvian citizens and with the populist Latvia First and Sovereign Power positioned to draw support. Analysts in Riga warned that Russia could attempt to test NATO in the Baltics, and Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga, said, "there is no better place than the Baltic states to test NATO."

SourcesEU TodayNacionale