Russia03 October, 20263 min read
Latvia Opens Polls With Russia Threat, Drone Incursions, And Cost-of-Living Squeeze
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Latvia votes amid security concerns from Russia and rising living costs. Andris Kulbergs' United List leads polls amid security concerns.
Election Under Russian Shadow
Latvia opened polls on Saturday at 05:00 GMT and will close at 17:00 GMT as voters weigh perceived security threats from Russia alongside a nationwide cost-of-living squeeze. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, whose United List is polling at about 20 percent, is seeking to hold onto his position after coming to power in May when his predecessor resigned amid a backlash from stray drone incursions from Ukraine. Riga and other parts of Latvia are voting for a 100-member Saeima for a four-year term, with security concerns shaped by official warnings of potential Russian aggression and a growing number of airspace incursions linked to Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
“Russia says accusations that it plans to attack NATO are baseless.”
Russia rejects accusations that it plans to attack NATO as baseless, while Western officials say it is not capable of launching a direct assault. Latvia has sharply increased its defence spending since Russia invaded Ukraine, now allocating nearly 5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defence.
Campaign Voices and Rival Lines
Kulbergs told Reuters that “We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win,” and he campaigned on strengthening Latvia’s anti-drone capabilities while maintaining defence spending at 5% of gross domestic product. Sovereign Power leader Julia Stepanenko told Reuters that “Our voters want peace, to stop looking for shelters, to no longer experience the air alerts,” and she argued that “The war must not be encouraged in any way, including by financing it… Ukraine must win, but through peace talks”. A Western diplomat in Riga said the stance toward Russia is the main reason for Latvia’s Western anchoring in NATO and in Europe, and Roberts Kits said “Defense and security will be the priority.”
Akhir khabar described campaign pledges in Riga that promised to “save the Russian language” and to let people “go to Russia again to obtain cheap fuel and food,” while it framed the debate as divided loyalties in a Baltic state that supports Ukraine. The Straits Times reported that Kulbergs’ pro-Kremlin rivals say Latvia should stop any aid to Ukraine and focus more on cost-of-living issues, particularly among the country’s Russian-speaking minority.
What the Vote Could Decide
Latvia’s election is contested by 14 electoral lists, with polls indicating only seven are likely to enter parliament and the rest expected to fail to meet the minimum 5 percent vote threshold. DW said polls opened in Latvia on Saturday with some 1.5 million people eligible to vote, and it described the vote as electing 100 seats in the Saeima being contested by 14 parties using a proportional system. DIE WELT said the center-right grouping of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs could expect 35.6 percent of the vote, while it put the populist Sovereign Power at 10.8 percent and Latvia First at 11.3 percent in forecasts after polls closed.
Euronews said “The stance toward Russia is the main reason for Latvia’s Western anchoring, in NATO and in Europe,” and it described broad consensus to keep military spending at almost 5% of GDP and continue supporting Ukraine. After ballots are counted, coalition negotiations are expected to determine the eventual composition of the government, with Latvia’s next government taking office while Russia’s war against Ukraine continues immediately beyond NATO’s eastern frontier.