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Rubio’s Hormuz warning
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Asian leaders that allowing Iran to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz would create a dangerous precedent that could be repeated elsewhere, speaking at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers' meeting in Manila on July 22.
Rubio told the ASEAN meeting, "We're with ASEAN 100 per cent," and warned that if "a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, impose tolls and threaten ships that refuse to pay," the model could spread beyond the Middle East.
Rubio also renewed US allegations that Iran had failed to honour commitments under a previous peace agreement, saying Tehran had approached Washington seeking talks but that the US had not indicated plans to return to negotiations.
In Manila, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow wanted to see the conflict between the US and Iran end quickly, while Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations and said the strait should be reopened.
The International Energy Agency described the crisis as a "stark wake-up call" for regional energy security, noting that Asian markets imported about 80 per cent of the crude oil and nearly 90 per cent of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025.
ASEAN, Quad, and diplomacy
At the ASEAN ministerial gathering in Manila, Rubio met foreign ministers from the Quad grouping comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia, and the four countries reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening maritime security and promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific in a joint statement.
Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi opposed attempts to change the regional status quo by force, and Penny Wong echoed concern about "behaviour that is destabilising and risky" as ASEAN discussions also covered South China Sea and East China Sea tensions.
Rubio later met External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, where a US State Department spokesperson said they discussed regional developments, the Iran conflict, and a proposed trade agreement aimed at reducing US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Indian goods.
In a separate track, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said prolonged instability was hurting the global economy and that Russia was interested in stable global energy prices for long-term economic planning.
Meanwhile, the BBC framed the question of Iran’s leverage by asking, "Why doesn't Iran want to give up its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz?" and quoted researcher Hamidreza Azizi telling BBC Persian that, from Tehran’s viewpoint, controlling the Strait is not merely about raising oil prices or collecting tolls.
Ceasefire talks and stakes
Euronews reported that mediators are trying to build on a previous proposal discussed among Oman, Iran, and Qatar in Muscat on July 11, with Axios describing a possible 10-day ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and pursuing a diplomatic settlement.
Under the proposal described by Euronews, the southern passage via Omani waters and the northern passage via Iranian waters would be reopened during the ceasefire, while Washington and Tehran would negotiate over a long-term arrangement governing navigation in the strait during the ten-day window.
Euronews said the mediation efforts reportedly included Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatari envoy Ali al-Dhodi, Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Atty, and Oman’s counterpart Badr al-Busaidi, according to Axios.
The report also said neither side had given final approval because each party seemed determined to improve its negotiating position by intensifying strikes before committing to the ceasefire, and it cited a senior U.S. official saying talks were ongoing while Trump was focused on making Iran pay for violations of the memorandum of understanding and for acts of aggression in the Strait of Hormuz.
In response, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagheri told Euronews that mediators were working to prevent further escalation and that Tehran had received the proposals but declined to discuss details, adding that Iran’s armed forces would continue to respond forcefully and crush the source of American aggression.
