Iran19 June, 20262 min read
Mohammad Mokhber Warns Energy Flows From Middle East Stay Suspended If Accord Stays on Paper
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Energy flows in the Middle East will stay halted without US-Iran accord implementation. Posted on social media, Mokhber linked energy flows to accord implementation.
Mokhber: Halt if Paper Deal
Iran’s senior adviser Mohammad Mokhber warned that energy flows from the Middle East will remain suspended if the U.S.-Iran accord exists only “on paper,” saying “the flow of energy from the Middle East willremain suspendedas long as international agreements exist only on paper.”
WANA News Agency tied the warning to the “announcement of the Strait of Hormuz closure” after U.S. non-compliance with the “first clause” of a recently signed peace agreement and “continuous ceasefire violations by the Israeli regime, by attacking Lebanon.”
WANA said the memorandum of understanding was “digitally signed” by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and U.S. President Donald Trump in the early hours of Thursday, June 18, 2026, and that it requires any war or military operation to halt.
PressTV similarly quoted Mokhber saying “When an agreement remains on paper, the energy flow in the Middle East will also come to a halt,” and added that Iran’s negotiators will not accept anything less than “the full implementation of commitments and the restoration of the nation’s rights.”
Sanctions, Polls, and Leverage
The Hill reported that President Trump’s peace deal with Iran includes waivers on U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, with the 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) saying the Treasury Department will immediately waive sanctions on “Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services.” The Hill quoted Clay Seigle saying “the initial waiving of sanctions should mean that Iran can sell its oil to a lot more than just China,” while Tom Kloza said he thinks “Iran has done well” in the deal.
ایران اینترنشنال said Trump called the preliminary agreement “very popular,” citing a Quantus Insights poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted from June 16 to 17 showing 56% approval, including 43% who “strongly approved.” In the same coverage, Vice-President JD Vance told CBN News that the Iran MoU lets Washington “dial up and dial down” relief depending on Tehran’s conduct, and that there would be “no American tax dollars” even if Iran complies.
Strait Watch and Market Timing
الجزيرة نت described markets watching for a return of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, saying oil prices retreated to their lowest since March with Brent trading near $87 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate slipping below $85. Oil analyst Amer Al-Shoubaki said markets have responded more to the “intention to sign” than to “the actual terms of the agreement,” warning that prices could fall further if a formal signature is made and implementation mechanisms become clear.
Al-Shoubaki estimated that “the return of oil flows and logistics operations to stable levels will take between two weeks and six weeks after the actual start of implementation of any agreement,” while he believed up to about 80% of production capacity could return in as little as 10 days. In the same report, Al-Shoubaki said the most influential factor in the coming phase will be the ability of tankers to pass safely and regularly, and he linked the speed of restoring normal trade movement to security arrangements and navigation monitoring mechanisms.