USA22 October, 20262 min read
Archive photo · 5 September 2013November 3 Midterms Could Shift Senate Control as Democrats Seek Four Seats From Republicans
3 Western MainstreamPhoto: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Cropped for layout
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Democrats have a strong chance to win the Senate, per forecasters. Ten Senate races will determine which party controls the chamber.
Midterms and Senate control
On November 3, the midterms could upend the balance of power in Washington, with the entire House of Representatives renewed and about one third of the Senate seats up for election. Of the 35 seats up for election this year, 13 are held by Democrats and 22 by Republicans, and Democrats currently hold 45 seats plus two allied independent senators and need to win four more seats to seize Senate control. RFI described Georgia as a “swing state,” and it said Jon Ossoff is running again this year against Republican Mike Collins.
“On November 3, the midterms could upend the balance of power in Washington.”
Michigan Democrats hope to keep the seat of Senator Gary Peters, who is retiring, and Abdul El-Sayed must absolutely keep this seat to preserve Democrats’ chances to seize the Senate majority. New Hampshire is hard to read because even though its two senators and two House members are all Democrats, the state governor is Republican.
Polls, probabilities, and flips
Nate Silver told the New York Post that Democrats have a 94% chance of reclaiming the House and a 75% chance of retaking the Senate, and he framed the Senate map as more than “pure toss-ups.” The New York Post said there have only been two instances over the past 70 years when both the House and the Senate flipped simultaneously in the same election cycle, naming the 1994 and 2006 elections. DecisionDeskHQ gives Democrats a 56% probability of achieving that feat and projects they will win 51 seats.
“All these races that are showing we’ve got a 2- or 3-point lead or it’s a toss-up, we could end up losing all of them by 2 points,” former President Barack Obama said, and it is “within the margin of error.” Cook Political Report favors Democrats to win 47 Senate seats and Republicans to get 46, with seven deemed tossups.
Investigations debate after power
Senator Raphael Warnock said Democrats should investigate President Donald Trump and his administration if they win back the House in November, and he told NBC News' Meet the Press, “Donald Trump is a crook. And he's got to go.”
“‘Donald Trump is a crook. And he's got to go,’ Warnock, a Georgia Democrat, said Sunday on NBC News' Meet the Press.”
Warnock argued that Democrats could “walk and chew gum at the same time,” saying, “We ought to have the investigations to get to the truth behind the most corrupt administration in American history.”
Former Senator Joe Manchin warned that an investigations-first agenda could hurt Democrats politically and contribute to a Republican victory in 2028, and Manchin said, “If they start with investigations, Michael, it’s over.”
White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis accused Democrats of having “no agenda to improve the lives of Americans” and seeking instead to continue what she called their “decade long witch hunt against President Trump.”
Warnock rejected the premise that Democrats have to choose between investigating Trump and addressing voters' economic concerns, and he argued, “We have to end this war, stop the tariffs, fix healthcare, and then lay out for the American people a vision that embraces all of us.”