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MiG-31s and NATO response
Baltics and NATO members raised alarms after Russian MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace with radios off on Friday September 19, forcing two Italian F-35s involved in NATO Baltic surveillance to scramble and intercept them.
“Baltics and Poland warn Russia could launch limited military or hybrid provocation against NATO VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Lithuania’s president said Wednesday that intelligence assessments suggest that Russia is planning potential attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland”
Sky TG24 said Putin’s jets remained in the alliance member’s skies for a full 12 minutes, an incident Tallinn called unprecedented audacity, while NATO consulted after Tallinn asked for a meeting under Article 4.
In the same broader pattern of Russian activity described by Virgilio, a Russian reconnaissance aircraft was said to have flown over the Mar Baltico after switching off its transponder and ignoring NATO identification requests, prompting Germany to scramble two Eurofighter jets.
Virgilio also reported that the episode came as Estonia announced a request for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, and it quoted the Kremlin’s line that “queste accuse rischiano di far aumentare le tensioni”.
Threats, denials, and warnings
In response to the Baltic incidents, Virgilio quoted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk saying Poland is ready to “abbattere oggetti volanti quando violano il nostro territorio” and adding that “non c’è assolutamente alcuna discussione al riguardo”.
RaiNews framed the same eastern-flank pressure as a Russian “provocazione” involving an aircraft without a flight plan and without contact radio, and it reported that the president ceco Pavel proposed “Bisogna reagire e abbattere gli aerei russi”.
Audacy and Associated Press both described intelligence assessments that Russia could carry out limited kinetic operations targeting critical infrastructure, with Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda telling Lithuania’s BNS news agency, “I cannot deny that we have such information”.
Associated Press reported that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the warnings as “a fresh batch of bugaboos intended to continue the brainwashing and prepare the population for further militarization,” while warning that the claims were used to justify NATO’s military buildup.
Critical infrastructure and Article 5
Audacy said Lithuania’s president warned that intelligence assessments suggest Russia is planning potential attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland, including facilities supporting Lithuania’s connections with the European electricity grid.
Associated Press tied the warnings to NATO’s common defense guarantee, quoting Edgars Rinkēvičs saying, “Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the Alliance and European Union levels,” and adding that “The next few months, or even the next 12 months, will be crucial for Baltic security.”
Virgilio described the immediate operational response to Russian air activity as Germany scrambling two Eurofighter jets to intercept an aircraft that ignored identification requests, while NATO said Russia was fully responsible for actions it described as an escalation.
Looking ahead, Audacy reported that the Baltic states and Poland have strengthened security around key transport and energy infrastructure in recent months in response to the Russian threat, and it said Russia dismissed the claim as an excuse to justify NATO’s military buildup in the Baltics.
