Saudi Arabia Prepares Offensive Against Houthis To Secure Bab El-Mandeb And Red Sea Shipping

Saudi plans Yemen assault

Saudi Arabia is preparing an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options under consideration including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters. Yemeni forces are expected to lead the ground operations under Riyadh’s oversight, while Saudi airstrikes are expected to provide support, and the operation is expected to be launched in the coming weeks. Reuters said more than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized depending on the scale, and Reuters also said the Saudis are weighing a limited attack around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader campaign involving simultaneous attacks in al-Bayda, Ma’rib, Taiz, and al-Jawf.

Reuters reported that the timing of the assault could range from within a week to after the U.S. midterm elections in early November, and Reuters said Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemeni peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants remain in control of Bab el-Mandeb. Michael Ratney said, "Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic," as the planned offensive aims to reverse the Houthis’ recent gains along the coast and control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Reporting for this sectionReuters

Allies, intelligence, and meeting

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced that an emergency meeting of the Co-Security Treaty of Mecca (Makkah Defence Agreement) member states will be held in Riyadh next week to discuss developments in Saudi Arabia, affirming Pakistan’s commitment to defend the Kingdom. Euronews reported that Dar said the emergency meeting would also discuss an Iranian proposal for politically engaging with the Huthis, while Reuters said the United States would provide intelligence to support Riyadh’s operations in Yemen. Saudi allies are not expected to play a direct role in combat operations, and Washington is providing intelligence and military advisers to support Saudi air operations in Yemen.

Turkey and Pakistan have provided military equipment used by the kingdom in Yemen, and last month Pakistan sent four cargo planes with equipment including air defense systems, light artillery, drones, and anti-drone systems to Aden. Andreas Krieg told SCMP that "Saudi Arabia needs Pakistan to help defend Saudi Arabia so that Saudi forces have greater freedom to operate against the Houthis," as Pakistani troops were expected to take over various defensive functions for Saudi Arabia.

Reporting for this sectionEuronewsScmp

Escalation stakes and targets

France 24 reported that the Saudi-led coalition accused the Houthis of striking Medina’s Taibah electricity distribution station, which provides power to the Prophet’s Mosque, and France 24 said the coalition spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki set the time at 5:11 am (0211 GMT) on September 29.

France 24 quoted al-Maliki saying, "This cowardly terrorist act, targeting a civilian facility providing electricity to the Prophet's Mosque in Madinah," and France 24 said the coalition stated one transformer was taken out of service without affecting the wider electricity network.

The Houthis denied involvement in the drone attack, and Turkey strongly condemned the alleged attack and voiced support for Saudi Arabia.

Reuters said the planned Saudi offensive is aimed at reversing the rapid gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and Reuters said Riyadh sees Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb as strategic leverage.

Reuters warned that the operation could open a new front of tension in a region that has seen ongoing escalation since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks and the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, as the Bab el-Mandeb strait is described as a major global trade route and an alternative to the Hormuz Strait.

Reporting for this sectionFrance 24Reuters