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ETF outflows, not IPO cash
Bitcoin ETF outflows have fueled speculation that institutional investors are cashing out of crypto to prepare for the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, but Sygnum CIO Fabian Dori said the data does not support that hypothesis.
“Crypto for Advisors: Crypto ETFs Global crypto ETFs saw significant outflows in May, but diversified exposures showed relative resilience; we explore what the data signals for long-term investors”
CoinDesk reported that bitcoin exchange-traded funds have suffered nearly $5.75 billion of outflows since mid-May, and that selling pressure drove bitcoin to a 2026 low below $60,000 in the first week of June.
Dori argued that if investors were systematically selling bitcoin to raise cash for IPO allocations, exchange balances would likely show unusual patterns of outflows and stablecoin market capitalization would probably decline, while CoinDesk said exchange flows remain broadly normal and stablecoin supply has seen little meaningful contraction.
CoinDesk also pointed to derivatives markets, saying Dori linked the decline in CME bitcoin futures open interest to ETF redemptions as evidence that some outflows may reflect unwinding cash-and-carry arbitrage trades rather than a broad shift away from bitcoin.
In Dori’s framing, “The ETF outflows are real,” but “the data does not truly support the hypothesis that bitcoin would be bleeding because of the SpaceX IPO.”
Derivatives and arbitrage unwind
KuCoin summarized Dori’s position that on-chain and market data do not support the explanation that ETF outflows are linked to the SpaceX IPO, saying the exchange and stablecoin showed no unusual activity.
KuCoin also said Dori told CoinDesk that if institutions continued selling Bitcoin to raise cash for IPO subscriptions, there would typically be more noticeable changes in exchange flows and stablecoin supply, but that exchange liquidity appears largely normal and stablecoin supply has not shown significant contraction.
Both CoinDesk and KuCoin tied the pattern to derivatives, with CoinDesk saying Dori pointed to a decline in CME bitcoin futures open interest that coincided with ETF redemptions.
CoinDesk described the cash-and-carry arbitrage mechanics as buying spot bitcoin while selling bitcoin futures contracts, and said that when the futures premium narrows or funding conditions become less attractive, traders unwind by selling spot exposure and closing futures shorts.
CoinDesk quoted Dori saying, “Open interest and funding rates moved very positively together over the same period,” adding that this “points towards a significant part of the ETF flows being associated with unwinding of funding-rate carry-trade arbitrage.”
June outflows, macro pressure
While the SpaceX-rotation theory was challenged by Sygnum’s Fabian Dori, Decrypt reported that Bitcoin ETFs shed $2.1 billion in June so far, pacing May’s $2.4 billion outflows.
Decrypt said Wednesday’s $214 million outflow kept the trend going even after a June 4 inflow blip broke a 13-day losing streak that drained roughly $4.4 billion from these products.
The same Decrypt report connected the ETF pressure to uncertainty tied to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which it said had entered its 103rd day, and said the conflict caused oil prices to spike and induced massive volatility impacting on energy prices and U.S. inflation numbers.
Decrypt quoted Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, saying the outflow pace has “moderated materially,” and that “The pressure has not cleanly stabilised yet, but it is exhausting rather than building.”
Decrypt also quoted Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, saying, “we need to see spot demand pick up and Bitcoin reclaim well into the $70,000s range,” while Haeems added, “What stops the bleed is a rate signal rather than a price rally.”
