Financeupdated 49m ago2 min read
U.S. Treasury Yields Rise as Investors Weigh 2026 Midterms and Iran Escalation
“Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.”
“Iran has said the results are an emphatic public rejection of Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East.”
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U.S. Treasury yields rose across maturities as midterms approach and Iran tensions escalate. U.S. conducted defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Yields jump, oil shifts
U.S. Treasury yields increased Tuesday as investors assessed the potential market impact of the 2026 midterm elections and escalating geopolitical uncertainty involving Iran.
CNBC reported that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield gained more than 6 basis points to 4.96%, while the 30-year Treasury yield also advanced more than 6 basis points to 5.332% and the two-year Treasury yield climbed 4 basis points to 4.623%.
Oil prices moved lower as market participants became more optimistic about the possibility of resolving the conflict in the Middle East, after U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island increased concerns about another escalation in the region.
CNBC reported that U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery declined 0.38% to $96.09 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 1.12% to $103.60 per barrel.
Investors also weighed a mixed session on Monday, when CNBC reported that the 10-year Treasury yield declined 2 basis points while the two-year note yield advanced by more than 1 basis point.
Iran frames election message
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that the US midterm election results signified a clear rejection of conflict by the American public, echoing the sentiment "Americans said NO TO WAR." Ghalibaf posted on X: "Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message." President Donald Trump told CBS News, "My message is, congratulations to the Democrats, and I look forward to working with you for the good of our country," while also saying, "I know a lot of Democrats, I have total veto power and I'm sure we'll be able to work things out."
The Independent described Iran’s reaction as an emphatic public rejection of Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East, with the result framed as voters punishing the Trump administration over the conflict and its economic consequences. The Independent also reported that Trump refused to take personal blame for the defeat, claiming that if his name had been on ballots the Republicans would have won "by a landslide".
Markets watch war trajectory
Markets monitored Iran war trajectory after Congress elections as oil traded in a choppy session and investors awaited Washington’s next move in the war with Iran.
الجزيرة نت said Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $104.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 0.5% to $96.60.
Branka Sachdeva, Head of Market Forecasting at Philip Nova, said, "Conflicting signals from President Trump have made it harder for traders to form a firm view on the market direction."
Sachdeva added, "I think some profit-taking and trimming long speculative positions is warranted, especially after the sharp rise the market saw last month."
الجزيرة نت reported that U.S. stockpiles of crude fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 30, according to industry sources cited by Market today, and it said official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration were due at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time (15:30 GMT) today, Wednesday.