Policing needs urgent reform or risks 'inevitable decline', Met chief to warn

Policing in England and Wales needs urgent reform including reducing the number of forces or it risks "inevitable decline", Met Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley will warn in a key speech today. Sir Mark’s proposals include cutting down the number of forces from 43 to as few as eight. In his stark comments, the chief will warn that the country faces a choice between policing reform or a decline in services. At the speech in Manchester later today, Sir Mark is expected to say: "I believe this is a choice between the third greatest revolution in British policing or the inevitable decline and fewer bobbies on the beat."

Read more: Call The Commissioner: Sir Mark Rowley joins Nick Ferrari to take your calls Read more: Arrests after emergency crews targeted with fireworks and police car set alight It is also expected to see him warn that policing is overly reliant on the goodwill of its workforce to compensate for a system out of step with the realities of the crimes they tackle. The Commissioner will add that organised crime groups, fraud networks, online child abuse, cyber criminals and hostile states operate across regional, national and international borders.

However, he will argue that policing remains organised around structures designed for a different age, and that eight to ten police forces should be supported by hundreds of local policing commands and a new National Police Service. "The moments that define policing are the moments when it has the courage to change," he will add. Sir Mark will propose that the change of structure would remove duplication that currently exists 43 times over, freeing up thousands of roles "and allow resources to be reinvested in frontline services".

In a comparison with the NHS, Sir Mark will argue that separate hospital services do not independently provide every specialist capability and that public safety should be organised in the same way. The speech will also address a decrease in police funding – from around 0.9% of GDP to around 0.7% across England and Wales since 2010. "Policing has tried to keep up, made do as best it can to patch over our broken model," he will say. "But the model is creaking.

We have 43 overstretched forces trying to do too much, with too little." He is expected to say that the consequences include reduced officer visibility, stretched services and many victims waiting too long for justice. Sir Mark will also argue that criminals, organised crime and hostile states have changed and adapted, utilising improvements in technology, while the fundamental structures of British policing have largely remained stagnant.

"The real danger is not change," he will add. "The real danger is standing still."